阿尔伯特：在2026年第一季度业绩公布前调整我们的估值和预期

Aalberts: Adjusting our estimates and valuation ahead of 1Q26results Adjusting our estimates ahead of the 1Q26 results.Aalberts is set to publish 1Q26 resultson 1 May 2026. We revisit our model prior to the release and following our CFO roadshow inParis (see our quick take from 10 March). We lower our FY26 organic sales growth expectationsfor the Semicon segment based on our takeaways from the roadshow. Namely, the following: i)ASML’s order intake includes frame contracts for delivery over several years, meaning that theincreased order book does not automatically imply strong sales growth in 2026 – and thereforemuch higher activity for Aalberts, as its semicon sales are generated before ASML’s sales;and ii) ASML’s own sales growth guidance range remains very wide at 4-19% yoy, pointingto uncertainty around when those sales will actually materialise. We expect slightly highergrowth for the segment than our previous estimates for FY27 (c.12% yoy organic growth vsc.10% previously). We leave our organic sales growth forecasts unchanged for the Buildingand Industry segments. With largely unchanged operating leverage assumptions, we cut ourgroup adjusted EBITA estimates by c.2% for FY26 and by less than 1% for FY27 and FY28. Taking stock of the current situation.We leave our valuation approach unchanged, basedon a 50:50 blend of a DCF and a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation featuring a 30%conglomerate discount. However, we increase our WACC (from 9.2% to 9.5%) due to a higherrisk-free rate and equity risk premium assumptions and reduce the earnings multiples used inour SOTP approach. This is all based on the recent moves in the financial markets in the wakeof the conflict in the Middle East. We maintain our positive view.Even after the solid share-price performance of +13%since November 2025 (and despite the recent consolidation of c.17% due to increasinggeopolitical uncertainty), we maintain our positive stance on Aalberts. We see the groupoffering a compelling combination of: i) proven portfolio management and self-improvementskills; ii) exposure to attractive end-market megatrends (such as urbanisation, technologyacceleration, reshoring and decarbonisation); and iii) end-markets that are gradually emergingfrom cyclical troughs. Investment ImplicationsWe reiterate our Outperform rating but reduce our PT to €38.00 (from €40.00), largely due to CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES — BERNSTEIN ESTIMATES VS CONSENSUS CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES Ahead of the 1Q26 publication and following our recent CFO roadshow in Paris (see our quick take from 10 March), we updateour model to better align with the company’s expectations for Semicon in FY26 despite the recent surge in ASML’s order intake. Here, we point out the following factors that have prompted us to cut our Semicon sales forecast by c.5% for FY26 and c.3% forFY27 and FY28. •ASML’s order intake includes frame contracts for delivery over several years, meaning that ASML’s increased order book doesnot automatically imply strong sales growth in 2026 – and therefore much higher activity for Aalberts, as its semicon sales aregenerated before ASML’s sales.•ASML’s own sales growth guidance range remains very wide at 4-19% yoy, pointing to uncertainty around when those saleswill actually materialise.•ASML’s services sales – to which Aalberts has very limited exposure – account for about one-third of its total sales. Overall, the lowering of our Semicon sales forecasts result in cuts to our Semicon EBITA estimates of c.10% for FY26 and 4-5%for FY27 and FY28 (on broadly unchanged operating leverage assumptions). Meanwhile, our sales and earnings estimates have slightly increased following the recent FX moves which act as a slight tailwindto Aalberts. This is visible in our Building and Industry segment forecasts where we have left our organic growth assumptionsunchanged and the changes in our estimates are solely the result of the changes in FX rates since our last publication. Exhibit 1 summarises the changes to our estimates at the segment level and Exhibit 2 summarises them at the group level. EXHIBIT 1:Changes to our estimates (at the segment level) EXHIBIT 2:Changes to our estimates (at the group level) BERNSTEIN ESTIMATES VS CONSENSUS For FY26, we are now broadly in line with consensus both at a sales and adjusted EBITA level. For FY27 and FY28, we are c.2%and c.3% ahead at the sales level respectively while we are c.3% ahead of consensus at the adjusted EBITA level for both years. Exhibit 3 compares our and consensus estimates at the group level. EXHIBIT 3:Our estimates vs consensus (at the group level) PRICE TARGET REDUCED TO €38.00 (FROM €40.00); WE REITERATE OUR OUTPERFORM RATING We continue to value Aalberts based on a 50:50 blend of a DCF and a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation featuring a 30%conglomerate discount. We reduce our price target to €38.00 (from €40.00), largely due to the impact from a higher WACC and lower trading multiplesfor Aalberts’s in