40年期日本国债拍卖预览：由于供需疲软以及缺乏吸引力的经风险调整的6个月利差和滚动收益，我们预计在高波动性下拍卖结果将平淡无奇，但鉴于短期养老金需求和创纪录的高收益率，也看到了取得良好或更好结果的潜力。

Restricted - External Ayao Ehara+ 81 3 4530 1379ayao.ehara@barclays.comBSJL, JapanShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan FIGURE 2. 40y JGB supply-demand monthly flows (3mma)FIGURE 3. Risk-adjusted 40y JGB 6m CRD02468100246810121416Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25JGB40y CRD (risk adjusted)JGB40y CRDJGB40y vol (RHS)bpbpSource: JSDA, BoJ, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchSource: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. 40y JGB yields around auction date (Day 0)FIGURE 5. Regression formula for insurer net purchases (monthly)and yield spread1357911 13 1527-Mar-2527-Nov-240.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25fit10s40s%y=-1.45x +1.58Source: JSDA,Barclays Researchmarket structure is being ignored, a simple calculation indicates that when insurers reduce netpurchases by JPY0.1trn, it puts upward pressure of around +14.5bp on yield spreads.FIGURE 1. Past 40y JGB auction results and 40y yield, curve and ASW heat mapdateMax yieldacceptedForecastErrorBid CoverJGB 40yJGB30s40sASW 40yZ-score28-May-253.2434912.0~27-Mar-252.7182.92.7925641.0~2.021-Jan-252.5732.82.633664-1.0~1.027-Nov-242.55-12.22.542960-2.0~-1.026-Sep-242.3412.62.322666~-2.024-Jul-242.42-3.52.22.39206722-May-242.27-12.22.24204727-Mar-241.90522.51.94154425-Jan-241.925-0.52.11.931538AuctionMarket conditionsNote: Z score reference periods are the past 12 auctions for auction results and past three months for others. Maximumaccepted yield in %. Forecast error in bp. Forecast error is market forecast - maximum accepted yield.Source: MoF, Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Shinichiro Kadota and Ayao Ehara, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views aboutany or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Research Department produces various types ofresearch including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations andtrade ideas contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types of Barclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.