30年期日本国债拍卖预览：收益率较高，根据发行预期可能具有吸引力，但这些可能会通过基于剩余期限的风险与期限溢价之间的相关性进行定价。此外，长期供求关系是一个不利因素，经风险调整的6个月利差回滚（CRD）低于其他领域。预计结果平淡。

30y JGB auction preview Yields are high and could be attractive depending on issuanceexpectations, but these may be priced in via correlationbetween residual maturity-based risk and term premium.Also, long-term supply-demand is a headwind and risk-adjusted 6m CRD is less than in other sectors. Expectlackluster results. Ayao Ehara+ 81 3 4530 1379ayao.ehara@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Shinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan 30y JGB auction: Yields could lead to decent resultsdepending on issuance expectations, but suchexpectations may already be priced, pointing tolackluster results An auction for 30y JGBs (June issue) will be held tomorrow (5 June). It will be a reopening ofJX86 (2.4%, Mar2055) with a scheduled issuance size of JPY0.8trn at par plus any additionsthrough the Non-Price Competitive Auction II. Yield, curve, ASW: Figure 1 is a heat map comparing the current market environment with themarket environment (and auction results) at the time of past auctions. In terms of the comingauction, absolute yields have been elevated since late-May and there could be future upsidedepending on the contents of any issuance reduction, as discussed below. Meanwhile, 6m carry-rolldown (CRD) is around 7bp, but only around 1bpafterrisk adjustment, which is not all thatattractive compared with other sectors. ASW are not cheap and the 20s30s40s fly, thoughattractive at first glance, faces a risk since the specific content of reductions to superlongissuance have yet to be revealed. Supply/demand: Looking at the long-term trend as a three-month moving average, overallsupply of 30y JGBs net of BoJ holdings and risk-adjusted by residual maturity is in a downtrend.On the demand side, however, the buying of insurers has become net negative and lacksstability, suggesting long-term supply-demand conditions remain a headwind (Figure 2). Post-auction trend: Looking at average moves in yield 15 days before andafterthe past 12auctions, we have seen a post-auction trend gradually upward to around +4.3bpafter15 days,indicating a slight headwind to outright trade (Figure 3). 30y term premium and risk-adjusted issuance:The superlong sector has been led by termpremium (TP) since April, reflecting poor supply-demand conditions. Since superlong TP is Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 04-Jun-25, 02:52 GMTReleased: 04-Jun-25, 02:55 GMTRestricted - External correlated with superlong bonds as a share of issaunce, the reductions to issuance expectedgoing forward will be a factor pushing down on TP. Figure 4 shows the results of regressing 30yJGB TP to 1) 20-30y JGBs as a share of issuance (risk adjusted by residual maturity weightedaverage), 2) the BoJ holdings ratio of superlong JGBs (stockeffectof BoJ purchases) and 3) YCCeffects1. According to a simplified simulation based on this model, superlong bond reductionsof a certain size and increases in 10y-shorter sectors (-JPY0.6trn in 40s, -JPY1.2trn in 30s,-JPY1.2trn in 20s, +JPY0.6trn in 10s, +JPY1.2trn in 5s, +JPY1.2trn in 2s) push down the superlongratio from 25% to 23% on the basis of interest rate risk and 30y yields by 8bp. In the case ofissuance adjustments double that size, the downward pressure on yields increases to 22bp.Reflecting the regression formula's theoretical TP (1.17%) on the above calculation as a startingpoint (1.09% in the case of a 8bp decline), the former scenario may already be priced to acertain extent at present (1.07%; Figure 5). Of course, fiscal risk and already weak private-sectordemand could continue to suppress the decline in superlong TP. We believe a reduction closerto the latter scenario is necessary for supply-demand stability (see Supply-laden superlong, 22May). FIGURE 1. Past 30y JGB auction results and 30y yield, curve and ASW heat map Note: Z score reference periods are the past 12 auctions for auction results and past three months for others. Lowest accepted price in JPY. Forecast error/tail in sen. Forecasterror is lowest accepted price - market forecast.Source: MoF, Bloomberg, Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s): We, Shinichiro Kadota and Ayao Ehara, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views aboutany or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disc