C3产业链周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENT总结01 LPG部分-价格&价差1 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesLPG期货及纸货价格4100420043004400450046004700480049002025/6/172025/6/192025/6/212025/6/232025/6/252025/6/272025/6/292025/7/12025/7/32025/7/52025/7/72025/7/92025/7/112025/7/13LPG主力APS丙烷主力合约(右轴)AFE丙烷主力合约(右轴) Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesLPG国内市场价格日期上期本期涨跌涨跌幅上期平均本期平均2025/7/2544864413-73-1.63%4491.434457.4330003500400045005000550060006500700075008000万吨华东国产气20212022202320242025日期上期本期涨跌涨跌幅上期平均本期平均2025/7/2545804550-30-0.66%4599.294572.713000350040004500500055006000万吨华东进口气20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures区域报价、贴水及运费-国际丙烷走弱后小幅反弹，FEI丙烷深贴水日期上期本期2025/7/25-20.25-24.00涨跌涨跌幅-3.75-18.52%-40-20020406080100120140美元/吨AFEI升贴水20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/25-50.00-45.00涨跌涨跌幅5.0010.00%-80-60-40-200204060美元/吨CP fob升贴水20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/2527.3528.66020406080100120140160180200美元/吨美湾丙烷升贴水202120222023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/122025/12025/22025/32025/42025/52025/62025/7USD/tFEIMB0501001502002503002023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/122025/12025/22025/32025/42025/52025/62025/7USD/t美国至远东运费中东至远东运费美国至欧洲运费日期上期本期2025/7/25-11.66-31.46-150-100-50050100150美元/吨美湾至远东套利空间20212022资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures丙烷价格日期上期本期涨跌2025/7/25532.50528.36-4.1420030040050060070080090010001100美元/吨FEI202120222023日期上期本期涨跌2025/7/253.7415.2711.53-150-100-50050100150200美元/吨FEI-CP202120222023 LPG部分-供应2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国丙烷发运量-向日韩及欧洲发运量增加，向中国发运量明显减少日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期发运量本期发运量涨跌2025/7/271011031107105-2405060708090100110120万吨美国丙烷发运量（周）MA420212022202320242025日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期发运量本期发运量2025/7/271610-6190051015202530354045万吨美国-中国丙烷发运量（周）MA42021202220232024日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期发运量本期发运量涨跌2025/7/2735382434510510152025303540万吨美国-日韩丙烷发运量（周）MA420212022202320242025日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期发运量本期发运量2025/7/27131521318051015202530万吨美国-欧洲丙烷发运量（周）MA42021202220232024资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures中印日韩进口量-小幅增加日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期进口量本期进口量2025/7/277269-392030405060708090万吨中国LPG进口量（周）MA42021202220232024日期上期MA4本期MA4MA4涨跌上期进口量本期进口量2025/7/27434419010203040506070万吨中国丙烷进口量（周）MA42021202220232024 LPG商品量-总商品量52.5万吨（-0.0%），民用气21.0万吨（-0.2%）涨跌幅-0.08%液化气总商品量（周）20242025日期上期本期2025/7/2521.2221.04涨跌涨跌幅-0.18-0.85%151821242730万吨民用气商品量（周）20212022202320242025涨跌幅4.92%20242025日期上期本期2025/7/257.366.82涨跌幅-0.54-7.34%涨跌3456789万吨C4商品量（周）20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/2517.1217.581214161820万吨醚后C4商品量（周）202120222023资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures◆本周中国丙烷供应量在40.38万吨，环比减少29%。◆国产方面，国内炼厂商品量总量为4.48万吨，较上周增加4.92%，本周华东金陵石化外放量增加，山东鑫泰石化、东营石化恢复出货，西北个别厂家减产，整体增量大于减量。◆本周国际船期到港量35.9万吨，以华东为主。周内华北、东北均无到船，其中东北盘锦锚地有船待卸，山东仅周初有到两船，其他到船事件延迟，华东到船集中在嘉兴和宁波，华南及福建到船受台风影响略有延后，到港量均偏少。 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 LPG部分-需求&库存3 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures化工需求-持续小幅回升-1000元/吨30354045505560百分比2023/7/282023/8/252023/9/222023/10/202023/11/172023/12/152024/1/122024/2/92024/3/82024/4/52024/5/32024/5/312024/6/282024/7/262024/8/232024/9/202024/10/182024/11/152024/12/132025/1/102025/2/72025/3/72025/4/42025/5/22025/5/302025/6/272025/7/25国内PDH开工率-1500-1000-500050010002023/7/282023/8/252023/9/222023/10/202023/11/172023/12/152024/1/122024/2/92024/3/82024/4/52024/5/32024/5/312024/6/282024/7/262024/8/232024/9/202024/10/182024/11/152024/12/132025/1/102025/2/72025/3/72025/4/42025/5/22025/5/302025/6/272025/7/25元/吨元/吨PDH利润(右轴)丙烯市场价格-华东丙烷价格 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesLPG国内炼厂库存日期上期本期2025/7/2518.0318.43涨跌幅0.402.22%涨跌051015202530万吨液化气炼厂总库存20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/252.833.02涨跌涨跌幅0.196.71%0123456万吨液化气炼厂库存：华东20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures民用气国内炼厂库存-小幅累库日期上期本期2025/7/2511.9312.12涨跌涨跌幅0.191.59%024681012141618万吨民用气炼厂总库存20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/251.521.5700.511.522.533.54万吨民用气炼厂库存：华东20212022日期上期本期2025/7/250.610.61涨跌涨跌幅0.000.00%00.511.522.5万吨民用气炼厂库存：山东20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/254.354.4401234567万吨20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesLPG码头进口货库存-华东累库，其余地区码头去库日期上期本期2025/7/25320.67304.08涨跌涨跌幅-16.59-5.17%050100150200250300350万吨液化气港口库存：中国20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/25115.07121.23涨跌涨跌幅6.165.35%020406080100120140万吨液化气港口库存：华东202120222023202420252025/7/25日期上期本期2025/7/2510.618.32涨跌涨跌幅-2.29-21.58%0246810121416万吨液化气港口库存：华北（除山东）20212022202320242025日期上期本期2025/7/2559.7854.70涨跌涨跌幅-5.08-8.50%20304050607080万吨液化气港口库存：华南（除福建）202120222023202420252025/7/25 丙烯部分-价格&价差4 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures丙烯产业链价格BrentWTI$/bbl$/bbl上周2025/7/1869.2867.342025/7/2169.2167.202025/7/2268.5966.212025/7/2368.5165.252025/7/2469.1866.032025/7/2568.3965.07-0.89-2.27-1.28%-3.37%山东华东￥/t￥/t上周2025/7/186315.006435.002025/7/216375.006435.002025/7/226375.006500.002025/7/236325.006475.002025/7/246275.006475.002025/7/256240.006475.00-75.0040.00-1.19%0.62%国内主营（钢联）国内地炼（钢联）￥/t￥/t上周2025