2025年碳酸锂7月策略报告

2025年7月1日 1 融通社会财富·创造多元价值目录一、碳酸锂2025年6月份行情回顾...................................................................................................................................3二、供应端.............................................................................................................................................................................32.1国产锂矿：国内锂矿产量大增.................................................................................................................................32.2海外锂资源：低成本盐湖产能释放，澳洲降本增效.............................................................................................42.3国内碳酸锂产能及产量：产能扩张，产量高位.....................................................................................................52.4进口锂矿及锂盐：锂盐进口总体高位.....................................................................................................................6三、需求端：...........................................................................................................................................................................83.1直接需求：正极排产或稳中有增.............................................................................................................................83.2终端需求：新能源车销售相对淡季，储能不确定性增加.....................................................................................9四、库存及展望.....................................................................................................................................................................104.1库存..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2碳酸锂7月份展望..................................................................................................................................................11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分1 融通社会财富·创造多元价值图表目录图表1：碳酸锂期现价格走势（元/吨）..............................................................................................................................3图表2：锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国)（美元/吨）.................................................................................................................3图表3：锂辉石矿样本产量（吨LCE）.................................................................................................................................4图表4：锂云母矿样本产量（吨LCE）.................................................................................................................................4图表5：澳矿产量（吨）.......................................................................................................................................................4图表6：SQM Atacama项目碳酸锂销量（吨）...................................................................................................................4图表7：我国碳酸锂月度冶炼产能（吨）...........................................................................................................................5图表8：我国碳酸锂月度产量（吨）...................................................................................................................................5图表9：我国碳酸锂周度产量（吨）...................................................................................................................................5图表10：我国碳酸锂周度开工（%）..................................................................................................................................5图表11：锂辉石进口量（万吨）.........................................................................................................................................6图表12：澳大利亚锂辉石进口量（万吨）.........................................................................................................................6图表13：津巴布韦锂辉石进口量（万吨）.........................................................................................................................6图表14：尼日利亚锂辉石进口量（万吨）.........................................................................................................................6图表15：巴西锂辉石进口量（万吨）.................................................................................................................................7图表16：碳酸锂进口量（吨）.............................................................................................................................................7图表17：智利出口中国碳酸锂总量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7酸锂总量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7图表19：碳酸锂进口量：智利（吨）.................................................................................................................................7图表20：碳酸锂进口量：阿根廷（吨）.............................................................................................................................7图表21：三元材料产量（吨）.............................................................................................................................................8图表22：磷酸铁锂月度产量（实物吨）..................................................