2025甲醇半年度展望

国联期货研究所研究所交易咨询业务资格编号证监许可[2011]1773号分析师：林菁从业资格证号：F03109650投资咨询号：Z0018461联系人：王军龙从业资格证号：F03120816相关研究报告：《下游需求专题（一）：传统下游梳理》《下游需求专题（二）：MTO》《下游需求专题（三）：燃烧需求》《甲醇2025年展望：海阔凭鱼跃》➢摘要醇高开工率或维持。位。➢策略➢风险关注点2025甲醇半年度展望 目录一、2025年上半年行情回顾................................................................-5-二、动力煤价或企稳反弹，但幅度有限.......................................................-6-2.1产业链持续累库，煤价走弱.........................................................-6-2.2煤价下跌引发一系列负反馈.........................................................-7-2.3下半年基本面有望改善.............................................................-8-三、进口变数与冬季限气扰动供应...........................................................-9-3.1新增产能有限，高开工或维持.......................................................-9-3.2关注伊朗装置重启时间、冬季限气情况..............................................-10-四、需求尚有增量........................................................................-11-4.1边际MTO装置对开工率影响较大....................................................-11-4.2关注其他下游产能投放情况........................................................-12-五、下半年产业链或去库..................................................................-17-六、估值水平有望回归....................................................................-18- -2-请阅读正文之后的免责声明部分融通社会财富·创造多元价值 图表目录图1：甲醇期货主力合约、现货价格走势图...................................................-5-图2：鄂尔多斯动力煤Q5500（元/吨）.......................................................-6-图3：重点电厂煤炭日耗（万吨）...........................................................-6-图4：水泥熟料开工率（%）................................................................-6-图5：钢厂铁水产量（万吨）...............................................................-6-图6：样本矿山产量（万吨）...............................................................-7-图7：动力煤进口量（万吨）...............................................................-7-图8：动力煤样本矿山库存（万吨）.........................................................-7-图9：动力煤港口库存（万吨）.............................................................-7-图10：重点电厂煤炭库存（万吨）..........................................................-7-图11：四大主产区煤炭产量（万吨）........................................................-8-图12：新疆国有重点煤矿铁路发运量（万吨）................................................-8-图13：印尼4700大卡煤进口利润（元/吨）..................................................-8-图14：动力煤平仓价（元/吨）.............................................................-8-图15：甲醇月度产量（万吨）.............................................................-10-图16：煤制甲醇开工率（%）..............................................................-10-图17：煤制甲醇利润（元/吨）............................................................-10-图18：天然气制甲醇开工率（%）..........................................................-10-图19：甲醇进口量（万吨）...............................................................-11-图20：海外甲醇开工率（%）..............................................................-11-图21：MTO产量（万吨）..................................................................-12-图22：MTO开工率（%）...................................................................-12-图23：甲醛开工率（%）..................................................................-13-图24：甲醛产量（万吨）.................................................................-13-图25：甲醛利润（元/吨）................................................................-13-图26：醋酸开工率（%）..................................................................-14-图27：醋酸利润（元/吨）................................................................-14-图28：PTMEG开工率（%）.................................................................-14-图29：PBAT开工率（%）..................................................................-14-图30：BDO开工率（%）...................................................................-15-图31：BDO利润（元/吨）.................................................................-15-图32：MTBE开工率（%）..................................................................-16-图33：MTBE进口量（万吨）...............................................................-16-图34：二甲醚开工率（%）................................................................-16-图35：二甲醚产量（万吨）...............................................................-16-图36：企业库存（万吨）.................................................................-17-图37：下游企业原料库存（万吨）.........................................................-17-图38：江苏-河南价差（元/吨）...........................................................-17-图39：港口库存（万吨）.................................................................-17-图40：港口基差（元/吨）................................................................-18-图41：甲醇生产利润（元/吨）............................................................-18- -3-请阅读正文之后的免责声明部分融通社会财富·创造多元价值 -4-请阅读正文之后的免责声明部分融通社会财富·创造多元价值图42：跟踪MTO企业利润（元/吨）........................................................-18-图43：进口利润（元/吨）................................................................-18-表1：2025年甲醇产能投放计划（万吨/年）.......................................................................................................-9-表2：海外产能投放计划（万吨/年）..................................................................................................................-10-表3：