聚酯产业链月度报告

2024年5月30日 。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分一、聚酯产业链行情回顾......................................................................................................................................................-5-1.1PX........................................................................................................................................................................................-5-1.2PTA......................................................................................................................................................................................-5-1.3MEG....................................................................................................................................................................................-6-1.4短纤....................................................................................................................................................................................-7-1.5瓶片....................................................................................................................................................................................-7-二、全球贸易紧张局势缓和原油需求进入传统旺季.......................................................................................................-8-2.1影响原油供应的因素仍较多OPEC+或延续增产.......................................................................................................-8-2.2原油需求进入传统旺季关注原油库存变动.................................................................................................................-9-三、检修装置重启上游品种供应回升.............................................................................................................................-11-3.1PX和PTA检修装置逐步重启PTA新装置或将投产..............................................................................................-11-3.2乙二醇开工率下降供应有望回落..............................................................................................................................-14-四、产业需求较好预计仍将回落...................................................................................................................................-15-4.1长丝和短纤需求好于预期仍有可能季节性下降....................................................................................................-15-4.2供需预计转弱PTA或出现由去库到累库的切换....................................................................................................-17-4.3上游品种利润回升聚酯品种利润普遍较差..............................................................................................................-18-4.4短纤瓶片出口增速较高长丝库存显著回落..............................................................................................................-19-4.5现实需求较好但预期仍会转弱................................................................................................................................-21-五、纺织服装出口低增长进入出口旺季阶段.................................................................................................................-22-5.1国内纺织服装需求低增长进入传统淡季.................................................................................................................-22-5.2纺织服装出口同比低增速4月好于预期但增速较低.............................................................................................-23-六、总结与展望....................................................................................................................................................................-23-6.1总结.................................................................................................................................................................................-23-6.2展望..................................................................................................................................................................................-24- 融通社会财富·创造多元价值目录 -2- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分图1：WTI原油与PX现货价格美元/桶、美元/吨..............................................................................................-5-图2：PX期现走势与基差图3：PX与PTA现货价格图4：PTA期现走势与基差图5：乙二醇现货价格季节性图6：乙二醇期现走势与基差图7：涤纶短纤现货价格季节性图8：短纤期现走势与基差图9：聚酯瓶片现货价格季节性图10：瓶片期现走势与基差图11：EIA对2025年全球原油供需短期展望图12：EIA对2026年全球原油供需短期展望数据图13：美国钻机数量图14：欧佩克钻井平台数量图15：美国原油产量图16：美国炼油厂产能利用率图17：美国EIA商业原油库存图18：美国战略石油储备库存图19：包括战略石油储备原油和石油产品库存....................................................................................................-11-图20：美国EIA汽油库存图21：PX工厂开工率图22：PTA工厂开工率图23：PX月度产量图24：PTA月度产量图25：PX现货加工费图26：PX月度进口数量图27：PX月度消费量图28：PTA周产量图29：PTA月度出口量季节性表现图30：PTA现货及盘面加工费图31：乙二醇综合开工率图32：国内乙二醇月度产量图33：我国乙二醇进口量的季节性图34：油制乙二醇利润图35：聚酯工厂开工负荷图36：瓶片工厂开工负荷图37：聚酯月度产量图38：长丝月度产量图39：瓶片月度产量图40：短纤月度产量 融通社会财富·创造多元价值-3-元/吨...........................................................................................-5-美元/吨、元/吨............................................................................................-6-元/吨..........................................................................................-6-元/吨.............................................................................................-6-元/吨.......................................................................................