铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱供应端，废铝供需双弱，合金开工率呈现下移趋势。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺，回收商持货量有限，流通货源偏紧下持货商惜售，价格偏坚挺维稳运行，精废价差收窄。合金厂趋势性下调开工率，对废铝需求收缩，即原料端处于供需双弱阶段。消费处于淡季，下游刚需少量采购。下游订单存在4-6月份边际走弱的季节性迹象，补库相对谨慎，下游压铸企业采购积极性欠佳。合金厂反馈销售不畅，部分存在一定的成品库存压力。随着淡季程度走深，价格上方承压显著，偏弱运行为主。供需双弱逻辑或随着淡季程度更深而演变为负反馈逻辑，价格回落。同时，ADC12-A00基差或继续收敛，关注跨品种套利机会。废料价格相对坚挺ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：承压运行，相较于A00继续偏弱1500016000170001800019000200002100022000-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-14元/吨 ◆◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量、出货量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12万吨华东西南华北华南其他0123456701-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝社会库存2021202220232024数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑日期铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）2025-0216.4439.9332.3112.132025-0115.87-7.0115.87-7.012024-1215.802.41178.151.742024-1113.83-21.45162.351.672024-1013.31-13.62148.524.542024-0913.20-9.55135.216.742024-0813.77-9.27122.008.872024-0713.52-8.89108.2311.712024-0613.96-14.1394.7115.442024-0515.4010.7580.7522.742024-0418.0539.6965.3525.962024-0318.4925.2147.3121.410246810121416182001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-082021-102021-12x 10000100012001400160018002000220024002600数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格短期横盘，ADC12-A00继续收敛趋势19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北-1000-500050010001500180001850019000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨元/吨ADC12-A00(右轴）ADC12A0001-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27SMM铝合金ADC12-平均价20212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨ADC12-A0020212022202302-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27ADC12/A00202220232024202515000160001700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-25元/吨保太ADC1220222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金开工率小幅下调，处在历史中位30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%中国再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率2021202220232024202525303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-20%再生铝合金开工率2021202230354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南3.24%0.95%1.43%内蒙古青海四川0.17%0.69%0.32%山东河北福建3.50%1.81%1.79%云南上海广东1.04%1.73%19.05%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下陷入小亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-31元/吨铝合金总成本20222023废铝89%硅3%铜3%天然气1%其他4%ADC12成本结构100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价202020212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-30元/吨ADC12利润20222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures生产端开工率小减，铸造合金显隐性库存累增151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202502468101201-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-15万吨铝合金锭：厂内库存：中国（周）2022202300.511.522.533.501-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-1507-2808-0908-1909-0109-1309-2310-0610-2011-0111-1111-2412-0612-1612-29万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）20222023202420250246810121401-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1905-3106-1006-2307-0507-15万吨铝合金锭：厂库+社库20222023数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures再生铝棒：产量、库存01-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1403-2804-1104-2505-0906-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1010-2411-0711-2112-0512-19万吨x 10000再生铝棒产量202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1403-2804-1104-2505-0906-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1010-2411-0711-2112-0512-19再生铝棒：厂内库存202320242025 需求端——终端消费03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures终端消费：汽车上半年消费旺季程度偏弱，传导至压铸消费01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31新能源汽车:产量(中汽协):当月值2021202220232024202505010015020025030001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万辆燃油车产量20202021202220232024202505010015020025001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010