市场展望——2024年10月17日

Market Perspectives October 17, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The immediate reaction to the October crop production reports saw prices dropping 5 cents on corn andabout 10 cents on soybeans, the price action in the following days has been more negative. USDA’sestimate for corn production is 15.203 billion bushels on a national yield of 183.8 bushels per acre. Thiswas slightly above the average analyst estimates but well within the range of their estimates. If theanecdotal producer reports of better than expected yields is borne out through harvest, then the oldadage of “big crops get bigger” could play out this year. An additional 1 bushel per acre could be addedto final yields. However, digging into the supporting data in the crop production report shows that earcount dropped from the September report and given the yield reported, this implies that ear weightwent up sharply and would be record high. The last time implied ear weights were record high in theOctober report, ear weights actually declined in the final report and national yield was loweredaccordingly. For soybeans, USDA made just very minor changes to yields and production, lowering yield by 0.1 bpaand production by 4 million bushels to 4.582 billion bushels. Pod counts rose in October compared toSeptember and stand in the upper-third of recent ranges, but this leads to reduced implied pod weights. Ending grain stocks for corn for the 2024/25 year at 1.999 billion bushels was higher than analysts’estimates of 1.962 billion bushels but was down from September’s estimate which was 2.057 billionbushels. USDA increased their corn export expectations for 2024/25 by 25 million bushels. Soybeanstocks are expected to be 550 million bushels, unchanged from last month. World corn stocks are estimated to be 306.52 mmt, which compares to USDA’s latest estimate of 308.35mmt. World soybean stocks are estimated to be 134.65 mmt, compared to 134.58 mmt in USDA’sSeptember estimate. Internationally, the USDA also left their old & new crop soybeans projections for South Americaunchanged like corn this month. Despite Brazil’s Amazon River Basin having two major tributariesshutdown because of low water levels, the forecast of seasonal rains beginning next weekend seems tobe behind the USDA’s lack of changes in their South American 2024/25 crop sizes this month. France's farm ministry on Tuesday further cut its estimates for the country's rain-hit soft wheat andbarley crops, while raising its outlook for the maize harvest that is getting underway. Repeated heavyrain in France, the European Union's largest grain producer, reduced planting and h