市场展望——2024年10月31日

Market Perspectives October 31, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook China's grain output is set to exceed a record 700 million metric tons this year, a key agriculture ministryofficial said on Friday. That figure is 0.7% higher than the 2023 harvest of 695.41 million tons, data fromthe National Bureau of Statistics showed. Although highly reliant on imports from Brazil and the UnitedStates to feed a population of 1.4 billion, the world's largest grains producer has stepped up investmentsin farm machinery and seed technology in recent years in its quest for food security. Soybean stocksremain dependent on imports and corn planting in China is still falling short of requirements. In the Black Sea area, Russian President Putin is reportedly examining Black Sea shipping proposals putforth by Turkey’s president Erdogan. Putin and Erdogan met at the BRICS summit in the Russian city ofKazan. Erdogan told reporters that he had discussed the grain corridor with Russia. Ukraine's new system of minimum export prices for the country's key grain and oilseed shipments islikely to be operational at the beginning of December, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval saidon Wednesday. He told Reuters that a small number of regulatory acts are still needed for the finalintroduction of the system. The government launched the plan to tackle price distortions linked to the war with Russia, which hasseen an increase in domestic cash purchases of some agricultural products and their subsequent exportat artificially low prices to avoid taxes. The cabinet has already approved the procedure for settingminimum prices. The new mechanism will apply to shipments of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, soybeans, rapeseed andsome other agricultural commodities, which remain Ukraine's biggest source of external revenues. Inline with the new rules, minimum permissible export prices will be calculated on the basis of statecustoms service data, taking into account the terms of delivery for the previous month and using a 10%discount. Ukraine is a major grain grower and exporter globally and has shipped abroad 14.1 millionmetric tons of various grains so far during the current 2024/25 July-June season, official data showed. U.S. exporters last week sold unusually large volumes of corn that previously were possible only whenChina was active in the market. But China was absent this time around, and its import intentions remainunclear for now. However, the recent flurry of export sales reflect plentiful, cheap U.S. corn suppliesthat should help the United States easily retain its title as top exporter in 2024-25. In the week ended