市场展望——2024年10月24日

Market Perspectives October 24, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election results is having some impacts on not onlyU.S. commodity markets but also world commodity markets. The political rhetoric includes threats ofactions such as tariffs that could become disruptive to corn and soybean flows from the U.S. if countriesaffected were to take retaliatory actions. Campaign speeches appear to be prompting some importers tospeed up the time frame for grain shipments and have U.S. grain merchandizers scrambling to ship outas much corn and soybeans from the record 2024 U.S. crop ahead of the presidential elections, and forsure, ahead of the inauguration of the next president in January. Nearly 2.5 mmt of U.S. soybeans wereinspected for export last week, including 1.7 mmt bound for China. This is the highest level of weeklyexport inspections in the past year. Nearly 1 mmt of corn were inspected for export last week also. This compares to 506.6 tmt last weekand 472.4 tmt of corn exports in the corresponding week a year ago. To date in the current marketingyear, corn export inspections are 5.79 mmt compared to 4.44 mmt a year earlier. That is a 30% increase.This “pull forward” of export shipments is likely to last at least through the election, which is in twoweeks, and could extend into January if Donald Trump is elected president. If Kamala Harris wins theelection, the rush to move exports before inauguration day in late January could ease up. Chinese buyers of grain appear to be reluctant to book U.S. grains and oilseeds for shipments beyondJanuary. Instead, these buyers are booking Brazilian soybeans and paying up to a 40-cent premium forthose soybeans, compared to what they could book U.S. soybeans for that time period of delivery. Atleast one analyst believes this pull-forward and then fall-off in export shipments could result in U.S.soybean exports falling short of the latest USDA soybean export estimate. Current shipments of corn are also strong with Mexico being the number one destination of cornexports from the U.S. Earlier this week, private exporters reported 359 tmt of corn sold to Mexico fordelivery in the 2024/25 marketing year and another 100 tmt to unknown destinations. And over the pastweek there were export sales of 169 tmt of corn to Mexico, 130 tmt to South Korea, and 198 tmt of cornto unknown destinations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered their 2025 global GDP forecast amid what they deem tobe increasing risks of slower economic growth. They cite geopolitical risk with increased potential ofregional conflicts that c