市场展望——2024年10月3日

Market Perspectives October 3, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2024, totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29.4 percent fromSeptember 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 780 million bushels are stored on farms, up 29.1 percent from ayear earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, are up 29.7 percent from a year ago. The June -August 2024 indicated disappearance was 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.75 billion bushelsduring the same period last year. On-farm corn stocks in Iowa are up 27.3%, slightly less than the national average, off-farm stocks in Iowaare down 0.5% compared to an increase of 4.3% nationally. And total stocks in Iowa are up 10.5%compared to an increase of 29.4% nationally. Of the major corn producing states, on-farm stocks are upthe greatest in South Dakota (+102.6%) while Missouri stocks show the lowest yearly change (-20.5%).Off-farm corn stocks are up the most in Wisconsin (+74.3%) and down the most in Iowa (-0.5%). For totalcorn grain stocks, the state with the highest percentage increase in total stocks was South Dakota(+62.5%) followed closely by Indiana (+57.3%). The state with the lowest percentage gain in corn stockswas Missouri (+7.6%). Soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2024, totaled 342 million bushels, up 29.4 percentfrom September 1, 2023. On-farm stocks totaled 111 million bushels, up 54.4 percent from a year ago.Off-farm stocks, at 230 million bushels, are up 20.1 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance forthe June - August 2024 quarter totaled 627 million bushels, down 1.4 percent from the same period ayear earlier. On-farm soybeans stocks in Iowa are 116.7% greater than a year ago. Off-farm soybeanstocks in Iowa are 32.8% greater than a year ago. Total soybean stocks in Iowa as of June 1 are 53.9%greater than a year ago. The state with the greatest percentage change in on-farm soybean stocks is Iowa as previouslymentioned. South Dakota follows behind with a percent change of 94.9% from last year. The state withthe lowest change in on-farm soybean stocks is Wisconsin (-30.7%). For off-farm soybean stocks, Indiana(+67.0%) has the greatest percentage increase in stocks, with Missouri (-9.2%) showing the greatestpercentage drop in off-farm soybean stocks. For total soybean stocks, Indiana (+55.7%) shows thegreatest increase in soybean stocks. Wisconsin shows the smallest percentage increase in soybeanstocks, up only 3.6%. The contract between the ports and about 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’sAssociation expired at midnight, and even though progress was reported in talk