市场展望——2024年10月10日

Market Perspectives October 10, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Trade analysts are expecting little change from September in the October crop production reports. Theaverage analysts’ estimates for corn production is 15.155 billion bushels on a national yield of 183.4bushels per acre. The range of estimates is from 15.0 billion bushels to 15.258 billion bushels of corn.The average estimate would be 31 million bushels less than the September USDA estimate and could setup a bearish surprise if the anecdotal producer reports of better than expected yields is borne out by ahigher USDA October estimate. The old adage of “big crops get bigger” could play out this year. For soybeans, the average of the analysts’ estimates is a U.S. crop of 4.579 billion bushels, down 7million bushels from the September USDA estimate of 4.586 billion bushels. The range of estimates isfrom 4.462 billion bushels to 4.66 billion bushels. The estimated yield for soybeans is 53.1 bushels peracre, down 0.1 bushel per acre from the September estimate. Analysts expect grain stocks for corn to be 1.962 billion bushels which compares to the latest USDAending stocks estimate of 2.057 billion bushels. The range on corn stocks is 1.835 to 2.100 billionbushels. Soybean stocks are expected to be 549 million bushels, just 1 million bushels less than thecurrent USDA ending stocks estimate of 550 million bushels. The range is 486 million bushels to 660million bushels. World corn stocks are estimated to be 306.83 mmt which compares to USDA’s latest estimate of 308.35mmt. World soybean stocks are expected to be 134.53 mmt, compared to 134.58 mmt in USDA’s latestestimate. Some of the world’s “dry” grain areas for 2024 are now seeing more moisture. Western Europe getssoaked by tropical storm Kirk with 2 to 4 inches of rain across France and western Germany. Animproved Black Sea area forecast and welcomed rain is forecast for the western half of Ukraine andregular chances of rain in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia over the next 10 days. Substantialautumn/winter precipitation will be needed to end the Black Sea drought, but enough rain is beingreceived to accelerate winer crop planting. The South American drought is ending with a substantialmoisture boost expected through the end of October and intensifying into the end of the year. MatoGrosso precipitation of 3 inches is expected October 1 through October 21 versus just 1 inch last year.November climate guidance features a relative cooling of temperatures in Brazil and near to abovenormal rainfall. Equally important is that shower activity will be spread across much of Argentina o