煤化工策略日报
能源化工团队 摘要 作者：夏聪聪从业资格证号：F3012139投资咨询证号：Z0012870联系方式：010-68578010 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本支撑不足，甲醇供应稳中有增，需求旺季不旺，市场延续累库态势。 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号成文时间：2024年09月18日星期三 【交易策略】甲醇期价上行压力犹存，短期重心或反复测试2400-2430一带压力位。 ●PVC 【市场逻辑】成本端大稳小动，PVC供应端预期增加，而需求跟进乏力，导致社会库存消化速度依旧缓慢。 【交易策略】PVC期货调整尚未结束，基本面偏弱，期价走势依旧承压，操作上维持反弹试空思路，01合约旺季不旺，上方五日均线附近形成压力，当前走势尚未企稳，抄底须谨慎。 ●尿素 【市场逻辑】尿素日产达到高位，货源供应偏宽松，而下游需求欠佳，供需压力有所增加。 【交易策略】短期内，尿素重心低位整理，关注前期附近支撑，上方1800-1830附近承压。 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 ●烧碱 【市场逻辑】烧碱供应预期回升，下游需求提升缓慢，厂区库存季节性累库。 【交易策略】烧碱破位下行，短期维持弱势，关注上市以来低点附近支撑。 目录 第一部分品种策略观点...........................................................................................................................1第二部分期货行情回顾...........................................................................................................................1第三部分现货市场走势...........................................................................................................................2第四部分期现基差变动...........................................................................................................................4第五部分行业开工水平...........................................................................................................................6第六部分库存数据跟踪...........................................................................................................................7第七部分市场供需现状...........................................................................................................................9 图目录 图1：甲醇收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................1图2：PVC收盘价......................................................................................................................................................................................1图3：尿素收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图4：烧碱收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图5：甲醇现货市场价...........................................................................................................................................................................2图6：电石法PVC市场价.........................................................................................................................................................................3图7：小颗粒尿素出厂均价..................................................................................................................................................................3图8：32%离子膜碱市场价.....................................................................................................................................................................4图9：甲醇基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................4图10：PVC基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................5图11：尿素基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图12：烧碱基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图13：甲醇开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图14：PVC开工率....................................................................................................................................................................................6图15：尿素开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图16：烧碱开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................7图17：甲醇港口库存.............................................................................................................................................................................7图18：PVC社会库存................................................................................................................................................................................8图19：尿素企业库存............................................................................................................................................
