药明生物2026年上半年业绩强劲 维持买入评级

Results China Pharmaceuticals /BiotechnologyStrong 1H26: Eyeing a 20% revenue CAGR and margin expansion; BUY Cyrus Ng, CFA Research Analyst+852-2203-6208 Maintain BUY; raising PT to HKs59.Driven by its"Follow and Win the Molecule"strategy and a broaderindustry recovery,WuXi Bio delivered robust 1H26 results.ManagementraiseditsFY26reportedrevenuegrowthguidanceto15-18%YoY(upfrom13-17%),andexpectsa20%revenueCAGRoverthenextthreeyearsalongsidegross margin expansion.We reiterateour BUYrating ontheback ofthecompany'smarketleadershipandsteadily improvingoperations. WeraiseourFY26E/FY27Erevenueforecastsby2%/6%andnetprofitforecastsby3%/6%toreflecttheupdatedguidanceandoperationalmomentum.Wehavealsoincreased our mid-term growth assumptions to align with management's 20%three-yearCAGRtarget.Consequently,our5-yearDCF-derived pricetarget(WACC:8.3%,terminalgrowth:2.5%)risestoHK$59(fromHK$48).WenowprojectaFY2528ErevenueCAGRof21%andacorenetprofitCAGRof26%.Thestockiscurrentlytrading at 28x/22x FY26E/FY27E PE, with our new PT implying a target PE of33x/26x. Downsiderisks includegeographicaltensionswhichmaybring adverse changesto the operating environment, intensifying market competition, increasingoperating costs, government-initiated drug price control policy. Robust 1H26 results drivenbysegmentmomentum;solidgrossmarginimprovement.WuXiBiologicspostedrevenueofRmb11,787m(+18.4%YoY)in1H26.Excludingforeignexchange (FX)impacts,revenuegrowthwouldhavebeen23.4%YoY.This growth wasmainlydriven bycontinued momentumacross allthreebusiness segments. Gross margin rose 3.5pptto 46.2%,driven by operating leverage,improvedutilization rates,andenhanced efficiency.Managementaims tomaintain currentgrossmarginlevelsfor2026,andexpectsa100bpsmargin expansionnextyeardrivenbytheWuXiBiologicsBusinessSystem(WBS).Managementalsoseesroomforgross margin improvement as:(1)global pricing was raised by 10%in 1H26,which will begin reflecting in gross profits starting in 2H26, and (2) overseascapacity continuestorampup. Thesellingexpenseratioremainedflatat2.7%,andtheadminexpenseratioedgeddown 0.6ppt to 7.3%, whilst the R&D expense ratio edged up 0.2ppt to 3.6%.Overall, operating margin rose 3.1ppt to 33.1%,and adjusted net margin rose Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyWuxi Biologics grew 27% YoY, mainly driven by new IND-enabling projects signed in the past 12monthsamidstarecoveryinbiotechfunding.Managementexpectsthismomentumtocontinueinthenearterm.Meanwhile,early-phase(D)revenuegrew10%YoY as pre-IND projects advanced to early stages.Gross margin for thissegment improvedby1ppt,drivenbycomplexmodalities. Late-stageandCMO(Mbusiness)revenuegrew11%YoY(vs.+26%YoYinFY25),mainlyduetoa highcomparisonbase.However,managementremainsoptimisticabouttheMbusinessandexpectsarevenueCAGRof30%overthenextthreeyears,underpinned by: (1)the follow-the-molecule strategy,(2) biosimilar products, and(3) the drug product (DP) business. (1)Theyexpect20productstobeapprovedoverthenextthreeyears,whichis expectedto contributeto the Mbusiness underthe follow-the-moleculestrategy.Assuming a revenue contribution of USD5Om per project, this isexpectedtogenerateUSD1bninrevenueby2030 (2)Forbiosimilars,managementtarget signing20projects overthe nextthree years, as they believe cost savings through technologicaldifferentiation will provide a competitive edge.Assuming USD5Om perproject,thisis expected tocontributeUSD1bn in revenue by2030,giventhat these projectstypicallytake4-5years tolaunch.They noted that 80%ofbiosimilarprojects willcomefromglobal customers,and20%fromChinese customers. (3)In addition,they notedthat the DPbusiness currentlyaccounts for10%of the company's total revenue, having grown 40% YoY in 1H26. Theyexpect the DPbusiness to grow at a 40% CAGR, targeting it to contribute20%of the company's total revenue overthenextfive years. Newprojectsweremainlydrivenby bispecific/multi-specificand ADcmodalities.Thetotal numberofprojectsgrewby23%YoYto1,064.Amongthesenew additions,ADCs accounted for50%,whilst bispecifics and multi-specificsmade up 21%.Management disclosed that revenue from Bi-/multi-specificsmodalitiesgrew30%YoYin1H26,accountingfor20%oftotal revenue.Theynotedthattherearecurrentlythree bsAb projects in the M business, whichare expectedto collectively contribute USD300m (USD100m each)over thenext 2-3 years Solid backlog in 1H26.The company's backlog reached USD25.06bn by 1H26.ServicebacklogstoodatUSD12.63bn,upfromUSD11.48bnatend-2025,drivenbylate-stageprojectadvancement,commercial ramp-up,and clinical progress ofearly-stageprograms.Theupcoming potential milestonebacklogwasUSD12.43bn,upfromUSD12.24bnatend-2025 North America remained robust; EU affected by divesture; China saw strongthe EU grew 1%YoY, mainly due to the Ireland vaccine divestiture. Excluding thisimpact,EU revenuewouldhavegrown10%YoY.Chinagrew stronglyby51%YoY.Management noted that demand was strong in China amidst improved funding,alongsidecontributionsfromthe BioDlink acquisition.Ascapacityin Chinaisnea