中国宏桥（1378.HK）2026年上半年初步税后利润同比增39%，小幅超预期，维持买入评级

China Hongqiao (1378.HK) 1H26 Preliminary Profit After Tax +39% YoY, Slight Beat, Maintain TopPick CITI'S TAKE Hongqiao announced its 1H26 preliminary profit after tax expected toincrease 39% YoY to Rmb18.8bn. Assuming MI covering 12% of profit aftertax, in line with our full year forecast, we expect Hongqiao’s 1H26 netprofit at Rmb16.6bn, +34% YoY and +61% HoH. The preliminary 1H26 netprofit covers 49% of Bloomberg consensus and 52% of our full yearforecast, which is a slight beat. The company attributed YoY growth in1H26 profit after tax to increasing aluminum price. We expect the strongearnings and cash flows could support dividends and share buybacksamid market volatility. Maintain Top Pick. Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Fengjimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wucynthia.d.wu@citi.com China Hongqiao Valuation Our target price for Hongqiao of HK$48.0/sh is based on 13.0x 2026E PE, set at China peers average. Our target price implies2.7x 2026E PB and 12.9x 2026E PE. Risks Major risks that could impede Hongqiao from reaching our target price include: 1) cost and capex overruns; 2) higher-than-expected capacity addition in the industry; and 3) a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than investment bankingservices from China Hongqiao in the past 12 months. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and theservices provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: China Hongqiao.Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events betweeninstitutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely toparticipate when the analyst has a positive view of the company.For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity provider in such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions insuch instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have beenrecommended in the Product. The Firm regularly trades in the securities of the issuer(s) discussed in the Product. The Firm mayengage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the Product and, with respect to securities covered by theProduct, will buy or sell from customers on a principal basis. The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of China Hongqiao. Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of theCompanies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months. For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regardi