药明生物：20%收入复合增长率目标有望提升增长能见度，维持买入评级
BuyAsia 1 June 2026 Wuxi Biologics Forecast Change China Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyImproved visibility expected from 20% revenue CAGR target. BUY.Continuedbusinessmomentumin4M26.OnJune1,managementheldabusiness Cyrus Ng, CFA Research Analyst+852-2203-6208 update call and reported adding 69 new projects in 4M26, with two-thirds comingfrom the US and Europe. Among these new additions, bi- and multi-specificprojectsgrew50%YoY.Managementalsoindicatedpriceincreases:15%forbsAb,5%formAb,anda mid-range increaseof5-15%forADCs. With the increased number of projects,management notedD&M capacity isapproachingfullutilization.AndtheyplantoinvestRmb3bninCAPEXinChinaoverthenexttwoyearstoexpandD&Mcapacity. Maintainrevenuegrowthtargetof13-17%forFY26.Despitetheongoingbusinessmomentum,managementis maintaining therevenuegrowthtargetof13-17% YoYforFY26, primarily due toFX impacts.Excluding these FXimpacts,they anticipategrowth could be around 16-20%YoY. Improvedmid-termvisibilitywith20%revenueCAGR.Notably,withtheincreasednumberofprojects,managementexpectsarevenueCAGRof20%forthenextthreeyears.Bysegment,therevenueCAGRforRandMbusinessesisprojectedtobe30%each, while the D business is expected to grow around 10%.We believe thisrevenue growth CAGR enhances the company's mid-term growth visibility.Additionally,managementforeseesa100-150bpsgrossmarginimprovementinthe coming years, driven by operational efficiency and royalties from the Rbusiness. MaintainBUYandrevisePTfromHKs4otoHKs48.Ourrevisedforecastsreflectthecompany'slatestdevelopmentsandtargets.Wehaveadjustedour2026and2027revenue forecasts upwards by 0.1% and3.2%respectively.While we've slightlyreduced our 2026 gross margin by0.3ppt, we've increased the 2027gross marginby O.5ppt,reflectingmanagement's optimism regarding margin improvement.These adjustments leadtoamarginal decrease inour 2026netprofitforecast by0.8%andamoresubstantial increaseinour2027netprofitforecastby5.3%. Wenowprojectrevenuegrowthof16%,18%,and18%for2026E,2027E,and2028E, respectively.Similarly,we anticipate core net profit growth of 22%, 25%,and 23%forthesameperiods. The change in the PT resulted from revisions to ourmid-term financial forecast, Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyWuxi Biologics derived from our5-year DCF model, with an unchanged WACC of 8.3% (risk-freerate of 3.2%, beta of 1.0) and a terminal growth of 2.5%. The terminal growth rateand WACC appliedarein linewithourcoveredChineseCRO/CDMOplayers. coupled withmanagement's strong confidence in achievinga20%revenueCAGRoverthenextthreeyears.Thecompanyiscurrentlytradingat20x/16x2026E/2027EP/E,while our revised PT implies P/Emultiples of 28x/23xfor the same periods. operating environment,iintensifying market competition,increasing operatingcosts,government-initiated drug pricecontrol policy Appendix 1 andothesubjectofthisr ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with anasterisk mayalso be required by at least one jurisdiction in additiontothe United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequired byNon-UsRegulators and ExplanatoryNotes.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking servicesfromthiscompanyinthenextthreemonths15.investmentbankingservices. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities otherthan the primary subject of thisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps:/research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouraged to review this informationbefore investing. AnalystCertification Theviews expressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviews oftheundersignedleadanalyst(s)aboutthesubjectissuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive anycompensationforprovidinga specific recommendationorview inthis report.CyrusNg. Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyWuxi Biologics HKD 26.20 Cyrus Ng, CFA2.08/20/2025Buy, Target Price Change HKD 36.00, Current PriceHKD 30.62 Cyrus Ng. CFA HKD 33.14 Cyrus Ng, CFA Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyWuxi Biologics TheEquity RatingDispersionChart depictsthefollowing: The proportion of recommendations that are rated"buy","sell"and"hold"overthe previous 12 months.This is shown forE.g.50%abovethe"buy"/"CompaniesCovered"barmeansthat50%ofDB'sequityresearchcoveredcompaniesoverthe past 12 months havea"buy" rating. Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of"buy","sell" and"hold" recommendations we providetwo additional bars toshow: -Theproportionof"buy","sell"or"hold recommendations whereDeutsche Bank and or/Affiliates provided MiFIDInvestment orAncillaryServices in thepast 12 months.This is represented inthe"MiFID Investment and AncillaryServices"bar.Th