尿素周报：出口流速好转，关注下游采购节奏

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1770元/吨（+11）；河南小颗粒市场价1730元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1720元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1730元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤1180元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-50元/吨（-11）；河南尿素基差-40元/吨（-11）；江苏尿素基差-40元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润-111.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润603.3元/吨（-25.3）。 供应端：截至2026-08-23，企业产能利用率86.63%（+0.46%）；企业厂内库存为167.8万吨（-1.0）；港口库存为96.3万吨（+24.8）。 需求端：截至2026-08-23，复合肥产能利用率30.81%（+0.84%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为53.95%（-3.2%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.41日（+1.2）。 市场分析 近期尿素现货成交受复合肥采购情绪好转及出口订单支撑有所好转，但后半周转弱。供应端，行业开工率环比小幅回升，同比仍处高位，但主流计划检修企业增多，供应存边际收缩可能。需求端，农业处于淡季，秋季复合肥备肥进度慢于往年同期，局部走货有好转；三聚氰胺开工负荷因检修下降，维持刚需采购。出口方面，印度招标以到岸价东海岸390.25美元/吨、西海岸393.65美元/吨共成交178万吨，中国货源参与度预计较高，国际尿素价格企稳反弹。政策层面，8月4日氮协座谈提出稳定预期及出口政策优化等建议，持续关注相关动态。库存端，企业集中向港口发运，带动厂库去化，港口集港量环比大幅增加。整体来看市场短期震荡偏强，但上行高度受限于内需跟进不足及出口实际离港节奏的不确定性，关注淡储采购节奏。 策略单边：谨慎逢低买入套保跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB..................................................................