尿素周报：情绪反复，关注出口兑现与夏季肥采购节奏

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1792元/吨（-9）；河南小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1800元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1820元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤1050元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差8元/吨（-11）；河南尿素基差18元/吨（-1）；江苏尿素基差28元/吨（-11）；尿素生产利润60.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润1938.7元/吨（-0.4）。 供应端：截至2026-06-14，企业产能利用率90.13%（-0.24%）；企业厂内库存为95.9万吨（+6.8）；港口库存为15.0万吨（+0.1）。 需求端：截至2026-06-14，复合肥产能利用率33.21%（-0.42%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.65%（+1.7%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.82日（+0.1）。 市场分析 6月8日印度NFL尿素进口招标共收到33家供货商总计625.05万吨货源，最晚船期7月20日。东海岸最低到岸价444.90美元/吨（50万吨），西海岸449.30美元/吨（23.4万吨），意向采购量170万吨。近期出口政策调控频繁，市场情绪反复，下游采购谨慎，出口流速或放缓。国内供应端，尿素开工小幅回升，同比仍处高位。需求端，农需暂时偏弱，需关注后续水稻、玉米用肥启动；复合肥开工因中部地区夏季肥收尾而小幅下降，秋季肥尚未大规模排产；三聚氰胺开工略升，但终端进入消费淡季，对原料尿素维持刚需采购。工厂出口备货及市场采购情绪谨慎使得本周厂内库存累库，港口库存小幅波动。山西煤矿事故抬升原料成本。当前出口利润仍在，预计出口窗口期内备货叠加夏季用肥需求，将对尿素价格形成支撑，后市关注出口预期兑现情况及三季度指导价变动。 策略单边：震荡跨期：UR09-01逢低正套跨品种：无 风险出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB............................................