尿素周报：下游开工下降，关注夏季肥启动节奏

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1826元/吨（-4）；河南小颗粒市场价1780元/吨（-20）；山东小颗粒市场价1780元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1800元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤920元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-46元/吨（+4）；河南尿素基差-46元/吨（-16）；江苏尿素基差-26元/吨（+14）；尿素生产利润131.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润3041.1元/吨（-32.3）。供应端：截至2026-05-24，企业产能利用率86.29%（-3.34%）；企业厂内库存为77.7万吨（+20.5）；港口库存为14.8万吨（-0.3）。 需求端：截至2026-05-24，复合肥产能利用率30.46%（-4.93%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为59.88%（-1.3%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.29日（-0.8）。 市场分析 尿素低价现货成交好转，增量有限，周中出口消息再次扰动盘面，盘面反弹，当前出口政策暂无新进展。供应端检修增加，开工下降，整体维持同比高位水平。需求端农业需求暂时减弱，后续关注夏季水稻用肥与玉米肥。工业需求小幅下降，复合肥开工下降，东北、西北装置多进入停车检修状态，中部地区新单成交放缓，下游采购积极性欠佳，但预计临近终端用肥，采购情绪或好转。三聚氰胺开工下降，三聚氰胺终端逐渐进入消费淡季，三胺价格继续松动，下游采购情绪一般。三胺对原料尿素维持刚需采购。厂内库存本周大幅累库，港口库存小幅波动。山西煤矿事故发生，原料成本有上涨预期。盘面低位，期现商出货增加，冲击市场价格，后续持续关注夏季用肥备货节奏，出口动态及三季度现货价格指导价。 策略 单边：震荡跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.........................................................................................