尿素周报：下游开工有支撑，关注新单成交节奏

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1673元/吨（-15）；河南小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1720元/吨（+10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差47元/吨（+25）；河南尿素基差37元/吨（+15）；江苏尿素基差37元/吨（+25）；尿素生产利润190.0元/吨（+10.0）；出口利润911.0元/吨（-16.9）。 供应端：截至2025-12-07，企业产能利用率81.82%（81.82%）；企业厂内库存为129.1万吨（-7.3）；港口库存为10.5万吨（+0.5）。 需求端：截至2025-12-07，复合肥产能利用率40.53%（+3.47%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.66%（+0.9%）；尿素企业预收订单天数7.35日（+0.7）。 市场分析 尿素前半周期现共振偏强，成交好转，后续随着现货价格继续上调，新单成交放缓，现货价格或有松动。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企业检修逐步恢复，目前2025年新增产能全部投产，尿素供应量不减。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复合肥东北、湖北开工率继续提升，山东地区排产增加，整体开工提升。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工回升，刚需采购。随着淡储进行，复合肥采购，出口采购等市场活动，尿素企业出货好转，厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅累库，淡储补库放量后续采购节奏或放缓。当前新单采购略有放缓，继续关注东北复合肥开工率、原料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏，关注现货采购情绪持续性。 策略 单边：震荡，或随现货价格松动小幅下调，期现正套择机平仓跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB......................................................................................