尿素周报：成交好转新单放缓，关注现货采购情绪

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1777元/吨（+1）；河南小颗粒市场价1750元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1750元/吨（-10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-27元/吨（-11）；河南尿素基差-27元/吨（-1）；江苏尿素基差-17元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润185.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润838.9元/吨（+1.6）。 供应端：截至2026-01-11，企业产能利用率83.28%（+2.99%）；企业厂内库存为102.2万吨（+0.3）；港口库存为13.5万吨（-3.7）。 需求端：截至2026-01-11，复合肥产能利用率37.17%（+3.28%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为54.35%（+6.7%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.4）。 市场分析 尿素元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期货盘面震荡偏强进一步带动现货采购情绪，现货价格小幅上涨，价格上涨新单成交放缓。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端后续冬腊肥和返青肥部分开始采购。淡储采购进行中。复合肥部分地区环保解除，开工回升，采购好转。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工提升，刚需采购。尿素厂内库存本周基本持平，港口库存小幅去库。1月2日印度NFL尿素进口招标收26家供货商362万吨投标，最低报价东海岸CFR426.8美元/吨、西海岸424.8美元/吨，较上一标涨5-8美元/吨，国际尿素市场情绪有所提振。印度NFL还盘意向购150万吨，目前已预定100万吨。当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态、全国淡储节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略单边：震荡跨期：UR05-09逢低正套跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响、现货采购节奏 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.........................................