尿素周报：环保预警仍存，关注现货采购情绪

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1730元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1720元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-5元/吨（+5）；河南尿素基差-25元/吨（+5）；江苏尿素基差-15元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润151.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润819.4元/吨（-1.8）。 供应端：截至2025-12-28，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.91%）；企业厂内库存为106.9万吨（-11.1）；港口库存为17.7万吨（+3.9）。 需求端：截至2025-12-28，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.5%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.1）。 市场分析 周中尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，但后半周价格上涨新单成交放缓，出厂价小幅降价吸单。河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始，环保预警再现，供应端有减量预期。需求端淡储采购进行中。复合肥侧受硫磺、硫酸、磷肥等原料保供政策出台，复合肥情绪降温，受环保预警限制，河南河北湖北开工不满，整体开工率小幅下降。三聚氰胺装置周初山东、山西等地环保管控结束，停车减产装置均已复产，但随后新增装置停车，整体开工率下降，刚需采购。本周厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅累库。出口侧暂无新消息。持续关注环保限制、复合肥原料采购节奏、全国淡储节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略单边：区间震荡跨期：UR05-09逢低正套跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响、东北采购节奏 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB..........................................................