尿素周报：周内采购情绪波动较大，现货采购情绪降温

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1697元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒市场价1690元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+70）；山东尿素基差13元/吨（+11）；河南尿素基差-7元/吨（+21）；江苏尿素基差3元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润131.0元/吨（-49.0）；出口利润829.5元/吨（-19.9）。 供应端：截至2025-12-21，企业产能利用率80.69%（-1.16%）；企业厂内库存为118.0万吨（-5.5）；港口库存为13.8万吨（+1.5）。 需求端：截至2025-12-21，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.3%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.24日（-0.7）。 市场分析 尿素11月出口60.18万吨。周中印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购150万吨。随之周三尿素现货低价成交好转，但后半周市场成交情绪降温。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，因环保问题河南安徽部分企业降低负荷，尿素日产量小幅下降。需求端当前淡储采购进行中。河南、河北、江苏、山西等地发布环保预警，复合肥厂及板厂开工受影响，工业刚需小幅下降。复合肥侧受硫磺、硫酸、磷肥等原料保供政策出台，复合肥情绪降温，部分企业降负，整体开工率小幅下降。三聚氰胺装置因局部环保升级，开工率下降，刚需采购。本周主产区采购放缓，但东北、西北储备需求带动厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅累库。下周环保问题缓解工业需求预计小幅提升，持续关注复合肥原料采购节奏、全国淡储节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略单边：区间震荡跨期：UR05-09逢低正套跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响、东北采购节奏 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB......................................