尿素周报：印标量价出炉，关注出口流速

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1687元/吨（+9）；河南小颗粒市场价1690元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1690元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1690元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤1130元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差3元/吨（-9）；河南尿素基差3元/吨（-9）；江苏尿素基差3元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润-106.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润814.4元/吨（-0.5）。 供应端：截至2026-08-16，企业产能利用率86.17%（-2.82%）；企业厂内库存为168.9万吨（+2.3）；港口库存为71.4万吨（+40.5）。 需求端：截至2026-08-16，复合肥产能利用率29.97%（-1.40%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.14%（+2.9%）；尿素企业预收订单天数4.24日（-0.1）。 市场分析 现货部分低价成交有所好转。印度尿素进口招标8月11日截标，最晚船期9月24日，共收到30家供货商总计554.75万吨投标。最低到岸价东海岸390.25美元/吨，西海岸393.65美元/吨，印度RCF共接受188.35万吨货源。中国货源此次参与度或较高。此前8月4日氮协已组织重点企业座谈，围绕稳定预期达成共识并提出商业储备、出口政策优化及“反内卷”等建议，后续需重点跟踪中国出口实际离港流速。国内供需层面，开工率环比小幅下降，同比仍处高位，供给充裕；需求端，农业用肥处于淡季，秋季复合肥备肥虽在进行但走货偏慢、成品库存累积，导致开工率小幅下滑，三聚氰胺前期检修装置集中复产，开工提升，维持刚需采购。库存方面，企业累库速度放缓，港口集港量环比大幅增加，后续整体库存去化取决于出口离港节奏、秋季备肥强度及淡储实际收储规模。 策略单边：谨慎逢低买入套保跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.................................................