尿素周报：需求持续支撑，关注雨雪天气采购节奏

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1791元/吨（-10）；河南小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1770元/吨（+10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1770元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-21元/吨（+20）；河南尿素基差-31元/吨（+10）；江苏尿素基差-21元/吨（+10）；尿素生产利润205.0元/吨（+10.0）；出口利润837.0元/吨（-11.7）。 供应端：截至2026-01-18，企业产能利用率85.25%（+1.97%）；企业厂内库存为98.6万吨（-3.6）；港口库存为12.9万吨（-0.6）。 需求端：截至2026-01-18，复合肥产能利用率40.08%（+2.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.18%（+7.8%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.06日（-0.4）。 市场分析 尿素现货周中成交火爆后厂家待发充足，上调出厂价，因周末及下周部分地区雨雪天气本周整体收单尚可，新单成交放缓。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端冬腊肥和返青肥部分开始采购。淡储采购进行中。复合肥部分地区环保解除，开工回升，采购好转。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工提升，刚需采购。农需工需好转，尿素企业出货加快，尿素厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅去库。受伊朗局势影响国际尿素价格上涨，但当前国内出口配额暂无新消息。后续持续关注出口动态、全国淡储节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略 单边：雨雪天气导致农需采购或减弱，短期震荡，中期震荡偏强跨期：UR05-09逢低正套跨品种：无 风险 装置检修与复产情况、出口政策变动、现货采购节奏 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.....................................................................................................................