GTJA期货·能源化工周刊：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/8/23 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【NBS: China's July tire output rises 8.1% YoY】 China's rubber tire production reaches 102.658 million units in July 2026, up 8.1% YoY, per the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). Jan–Jul output rises 2.8%YoY to 708.594 million units. 2.【NBS: China's July synthetic rubber output rises 7.6% YoY to 0.792 million tonnes】 China's synthetic rubber output reaches 0.792 million tonnes in July 2026, up 7.6% YoY, per the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). Jan–Jul output rises 6.5%YoY to 5.434 million tonnes. 3.【Cambodia's H1 natural rubber exports rise 19% YoY】 Cambodia's H1 natural rubber exports reach 0.206 million tonnes, up 19% YoY from 0.173 million tonnes a year earlier, perQinRexdata. By grade: TSRexports total 0.159 million tonnes, +16% YoY; RSS exports 0.009 million tonnes, +50% YoY; latex exports 0.01 million tonnes;natural rubber in other formsexports 0.028 million tonnes,-7% YoY. Main destinations: Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and China. As of 2025, Cambodia has 448,051 hectares of rubberplantations, of which 346,842 hectares (77.4%) are tappable. 4.【China's Jan-Jul tire exports rise 2.4% YoY】 China's Jan-Jul rubber tire exports total 5.76 million tonnes, +2.4% YoY, with value down 3% YoY to CNY 96.3 billion, per the General Administration ofCustoms of China (GACC). Pneumatic rubber tire exports reach 5.54 million tonnes (+2.2% YoY) and CNY 92.3 billion (-3.2% YoY); by unit count, 422.62million units, +1.7% YoY. Motor vehicle tire exports total 4.82 million tonnes (+0.6% YoY) and CNY 77.4 billion (-5.5% YoY). Source:Qinrex Industry News 5.【MOFCOM and 8 Other Authorities: Strongly Support New-Energy Vehicle Rural Subsidy Program and Expand RuralCharging Infrastructure Coverage】 Nine government authorities led by the Ministry of Commerce issued the Opinions on Further Stimulating Vitality of Sinking Marketsand Boosting County-level Consumption. It calls for expanding the supply of high-quality and fairly-priced goods. Enterprises are encouraged to bring premium goods to county-level markets and launch new products simultaneously in eligiblecounties, so that urban and rural consumers can access identical products of equal quality. Enterprises shall be guided to developquality products tailored to county-level consumption characteristics. Commercial and distribution firms are supported to buildflexible supply chains via private-label production based on actual demand. Strong support will be given to programs promoting new-energy vehicles, green smart products and green building materials inrural areas, alongside expanded coverage of rural charging facilities. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rainfall in domestic and overseas producing regions disrupts supply; overseas factories and secondary dealers actively restock,keeping feedstockprices elevated and providing strong cost support for natural rubber. Downstream capacity utilization is recovering and rising;Qingdao port and socialinventories continue to destock. Combined with bullish sentiment across the broader commodities market, natural rubber fundamentals and macrotailwinds align, spot traders maintain a firm pricing stance, actual deals remain firm, and the rubber price center shifts upagain over the period. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR、RU-BR、NR-SGX TSR20、RU-JPX RSS3 decreased. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rise this week; traders purchase in-stock and nearby spot rubber while selling forward spot tolock calendar spreads, arbitrage players build positions,downstream covers rigid demand, and actual deal pricesremain firm. The futures market trades range-bound with abullish bias; domestic natural rubber spot prices follow thefutures market higher, lifting market sentiment, butdownstream acceptance of high prices remains limited, withcautious and measured restocking and small-volumetransactions. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber was stable, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubbernarrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Butadiene prices continue to rally over the period,providing strong cost support; butadiene rubber ex-factoryprices rise successively, bullish sentiment builds, tradersshow reluctance to sell and quote high, and offersgradually lift. This week, domestic butadiene rubbercapacity utilization remains high, but downstreamdemand recovery is sluggish and resistance to high-priced feedstock is pronounced, with actual deals limitedto rigid demand purchases at bargained-down prices. Capital Trends Supply & Demand Data Supply: