GTJA 期货·能源化工行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332 Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand Lifts State of Emergency in Songkhla Province】On December 4th local time, Thai Prime MinisterAnutinsigned a decree In mid-November, southern Thailand was hit by severe floods triggered by persistent heavy rainfall, with Songkhla Province bearing the bruntof the disaster. The province suffered a once-in-300-year catastrophic flood, which inflicted heavy casualties and property losses. To safeguard As water levels receded and the flood situation eased, administrative management, public health services and other relevant workhaveresumed normal operations with the joint support of local governments and the national public. Given the continuous improvementof the Thai Government SpokesmanSiripongstated that although the current situation has improved significantly and the state of emergency hasbeen lifted, the government will continue to advance relief efforts for affected residents and post-disaster recovery work untilfull 2.【PCA: China’s Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales Down 7% YoY in November】According to preliminary statistics released by the PassengerCar Association (PCA), China’s passenger vehicle retail sales reached 2.263 million units in November 2025, down 7% year-on-year(YoY) and up Industry News 3.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Output to Rise 2.7% while Consumption to Fall 4.2% in October】According to the latest October 2025report released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber output is projected to grow 2.7% to1.496 million tons in October, up 1.7% month-on-month (MoM); natural rubber consumption is expected to drop 4.2% to 1.26 milliontons, country/region shows: Thailand +1.2%, Indonesia-4.3%, China +6%, India +5.6%, Vietnam-1.3%, Malaysia-4.2%, Cambodia +5.6%, Myanmar+5.3%, and other countries +3.5%. Global natural rubber consumption in 2025 is projected to edge up 0.8% YoY to 15.565 million tons, with the The report notes that natural rubber prices trended downward in October. The downward price pressure can be attributed to risingoutput and Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber prices in both domestic and overseas markets declined this week, with JPX RSS3 posting the steepest drop, Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR, RU-BR and NR-SGX TSR20 has narrowed, while the price spreads of RU-JPX RSS3 Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, the quotation prices of imported rubber in the marketdeclined. Traders mainly focused on position rolling and cargo ➢Spot quotations of domestic natural rubber moved downward intandem with the futures market. Volatility in the futures marketweighed on traders' sentiment, resulting in cautious trading Other Spreads: Light and DarkColored ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber is stable, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubber haswidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR butadiene rubber registered a slight overall increase, with the overallsupply remaining adequate. Despite the short-lived market boost fromnews of butadiene exports to South Korea during the week, the cost side ➢Although the mainstream ex-factory prices and market quotations ofbutadiene rubber edged up during the week, downstream buyers’resistance to high prices continued to mount, leading to a markedslowdown in transactions. As middlemen’s pressure to destock gradually Capital TrendsOpen Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU Supply & Demand Data Supply: ThailandWeather ➢Southern Thailand has entered the rainy season with rainfall rising rapidly. Supply: China Weather ➢The rainy season has ended in the Hainan and Yunnan rubber-producing regions. The rolling 30-day average precipitation in the production areas of Yunnan Supply: Raw material prices ➢Overseas floods have receded, with rubber tapping and production resuming; raw material prices in Thailand have trended downward.Meanwhile, domestic production has entered the suspension and reduction period, leading to firm performance in the raw material Supply: Price Spreads between Raw Materials ➢The price spread between Thai latex and cup lump has widened.➢The price spread between Hainan concentrated latex factories and SCFWF factories for latex is stable.➢The price spread between Yunnan concentrated latex factories and SCFWF factories for latex is stable. Supply:Processing Profit ➢The decline in raw material prices has led to a general recovery in processing margins. Supply:Delivery Profit ➢The delivery profits of Hainan-produced SCRWF increased.➢The delivery profits of Yunnan-produced SCRWF decreased. Supply: Thailand's Exports ➢Thailand's natural rubber exports in October recorded a significant month-on-month (MoM) growth, with theincrement mainly driven by STR (Standard Thailand Rubber) and mixture rubber. Supply: Thailand's Exports to China ➢Thailand's natural