国泰君安期货·能源与化工行业周报：天然橡胶

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTSIndustry News01Industry News Supply & Demand DataSupplyDemandInventory Market TrendsFutures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends Trading AdviceTrading Advice Industry News1 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesIndustry News1.【Vietnam’s Natural Rubber and Mixed Rubber Exports Decline by 5.9% YoY in the First Four Months】Vietnam’s total natural rubber exports in the first four months of 2025 reached 168,000 tons, a 19% decrease compared to208,000 tons last year. Of this, TSR exports accounted for 93,000 tons, down 29%, including a 49% decrease in SVR10 to 30,000tons, a 3% decrease in SVR3L to 33,000 tons, and a 26% decrease in SVRCV60 to 17,000 tons. RSS exports totaled 17,000 tons,down 6%, and latex exports reached 58,000 tons, down 5%.From January to April, Vietnam’s mixed rubber exports amounted to 282,000 tons, a 4.4% increase from 270,000 tons last year.Ofthis, SVR3L mixed rubber exports reached 61,000 tons, up 33%; SVR10 mixed rubber exports totaled 218,000 tons, down 2%; andRSS3 mixed rubber exports were 3,300 tons, down 6%.In the first four months, Vietnam’s natural rubber exports to China totaled 44,000 tons, a 20% decrease from 55,000 tons lastyear. Duringthe same period, Vietnam’s mixed rubber exports to China totaled 282,000 tons, an increase of 4.4% from 270,000 tons last year.Amongthese, SVR3L mixed rubber exports to China were 61,000 tons, up 33%; SVR10 mixed rubber exports to China reached 218,000 tons, down2%; and RSS3 mixed rubber exports to China were 2,900 tons, down 12%.Overall, in the first four months, Vietnam’s total natural and mixed rubber exports amounted to 450,000 tons, a 5.9% decreasefrom 478,000 tons last year. Total exports to China were 326,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.3% compared to 325,000 tons last year. 4According to the latest data,Source:Qinrex Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesIndustry News2.【EU Passenger Car Sales Rise 1.3% in April, Electric Vehicles Capture 15.7% Market Share】According to the latest data from theEuropean Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), EU passenger car sales in April 2025 increased by 1.3% to 925,359 units. Despitethe continued unpredictable global economic environment, April's sales showed a rebound, signaling signs of recovery. In thefirst fourmonths of this year, new car registrations in the EU declined by 1.2%, totaling 3.64 million units. The market share of fullyelectric vehicles(EVs) was 15.3%, still far below expectations. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) continue to gain popularity and remain the most favoredpowertrain type among buyers.As of April, fully electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 15.3% of the EU car market, up from a low baseline of 12% in April2024. Sales ofhybrid vehicles surged, capturing 35.3% of the market share, making them the top choice for EU consumers. Meanwhile, the combinedmarket share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped again to 38.2%, down from 48.4% in the same period last year.3.【Thailand and China Hold Consultative Meeting on "Promoting the Rubber Economy and Reducing Natural Rubber Import Tariffs“】According to a report from Thailand on May 26, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), as Thailand’s representative, jointlyheld aconsultative meeting with the Mekong Subregion Trade and Economic Development Association at TheRiveriebyKatathaniin Chiang Rai.The meeting focused on the proposal to "promote the rubber economy and reduce natural rubber import tariffs." Representativesfrom thegovernments of Thailand and China exchanged their visions and discussed plans to promote China's zero-tariff policy on rubber imports andformulate pathways to reduce international trade barriers. Key measures proposed during the meeting included the establishment of a"Thailand-China-Xishuangbanna Rubber Joint Task Force" and the improvement of the "Mekong Transportation System“. Source:Qinrex 5 Market trends02 7Source:iFinD，GTJA Futures Research新加坡TSR20:2509收盘价东京RSS3:2509收盘价(日元/千克)2025/5/302025/5/30159.60300.00-6.01%-6.25%11000115001200012500130001350014000145001500015500元/吨NR2509收盘价270280290300310320330340350360370日元/千克东京RSS3：2509收盘价INENR 2509:closeTOCOMRSS32509: closeThis week, both domestic and international markets saw significant declines, withthe domestic market experiencing a larger drop than the international marketYuan/tonJPY/kgSICOM TSR20 2509:closeTOCOM RSS3 2509:close(JPY/kg) Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesFutures Prices1300013500140001450015000155001600016500170001750018000元/吨RU2509收盘价RU2509.SHF收盘价(元/吨)NR2509.SHF收盘价(元/吨)2025/5/302025/5/3013405.0011545.00-7.77%-7.42%150160170180190200210美分/千克新加坡TSR20：2509收盘价SHFERU2509:SICOM TSR202509:closeYuan/tonUS Cent/kgRU 2509:close(yuan/ton)NR 2509:close(yuan/ton) Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesBasis & Calendar Spread-2500-2000-1500-1000-5000500100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-22