国泰君安期货·能源化工行业周报：PR, PF

GTJA Futures Research InstituteChenXinchao（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0020238HeXiaoqin（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0017709QianJiayin（Contacts）Qualification Code：F03124480Date：2025.10.12 CONTENTS PETResin（PR） Direct spinning polyester staple fiber（PF） Summary of Key Insights Valuation and ProfitFundamental OperationsSupply-Demand Balance Upstream product viewpoints Valuation and Profit PRviewpoint Fundamental Operations PFviewpoint Summary of Key Insights Summary of Key Insights PET Resin（PR） "Anti-Inward Rolling" for PET Resin: Cost Increase,Minimal Supply Impact◆PolicyTransmission:Top-down,withupstreamsectorsmoreeasilycontrolleddirectlybypolicies;downstreamsectorsrelymoreon marketcompetitioneliminationthroughmeasureslikesubsidyremoval.PETresinhasbeenincompetitionforyears. ◆PETresinfacilitieswithin10yearsaccountforasignificantproportion,whileamongthoseover20years,state-ownedenterprises,export-oriented,andlong-idledfacilitieshaveahighershare. ◆CostGradientNarrow:ThecashflowcostofleadingPETresinenterprisesisgenerallywithintherangeof450-500RMB/ton,withminimaldifferences;thefullcostmostlyfallswithinthe700-900RMB/tonrange.PET Resin Enterprise CostPET Resin Facility Age Comparison Basis and Monthly Spread ◆Thisweek,pricesdeclined,withthebasisgenerallyfluctuatingandweakeninginthelatterhalfoftheweek,whilethenear-monthspreadstrengthened. ◆Thisweek,pricesdeclinedwithmorelow-levelpurchases,andtransactionpricesrangedfrom5700-5800yuan/ton;FOBpricesSpot Prices and Key Spreads stoodat750-775USD/ton. Spot Prices and Key Spreads ◆PETResin-ChipSpread:Since2024,thePETresin-chipspreadhasremainedathistoricallows.Producerswithconversioncapabilitiesmayoptforswitchingoperations(addingIPAtothePETresinpolymerizationstage,correspondingtothechipproductbeingbrightchip).Currently,therearefewfacilitiescapableofconversion,withanestimatedcapacityofaround650,000tons. ◆PF-PRSpread:PFplantsplanmassproductioncuts,whilePRplantsresumemaintenance,potentiallywideningthePF-PRspread. Production and Operating Rates ◆Since2024,thecapacitybasehasbeencontinuouslyexpanding,withthecurrenteffectivecapacityreaching21.68milliontons(CCFdata). ◆Thisweek,thePETresinloadincreasedto81%. Feedstock: PTA follows crude oil decline Feedstock: MEG subsequent supply pressure increasesmonth-on-monthbasisspot/futureMEG main contractMEG Load (Total) Cost and Profit: Processing Fee Recovery ◆Polymerizationcostshavedecreasedtoaround5,250-5,350RMB/ton. ◆Rawmaterialsremainweak,PETresinprocessingfeesfluctuateathighlevels,withspotprocessingfeeshoveringaround470-500RMB/ton. ◆Exportprofitsareconcurrentlyrecovering,withanestimatedrangeofapproximately780-800RMB/tonbasedondomesticpolymerizationcosts(reflectingahigherlevelofexportprofitability). Inventory: Low levels with increased production and sales, slightdecline in factory stock. ◆OverallPTAinventoryinpolyesterplantsincreases ◆DomesticPETresinplantinventorieshaverisentoaround18days.(CCFdata) ◆Oct-Novisexpectedtomaintaininventoryaccumulation.AccordingtoCCFdata,preliminarysocialinventoryinSepwas2.77milliontons,withanestimated3milliontonsinOct. Plant Status Update: Output Reduction Implemented asPlanned ◆PlantMaintenanceStatus:Mostfactoriesmaintaina20%reductioninoutput.HuarunZhuhai's1.1million-tonPETresinfacilitytemporarilyhaltedduetoatyphoon,andithasgraduallyresumedoperationsbytheendofSeptember,with500,000tonsstillrampingupcapacity.HuarunJiangyin's600,000-tonannualPETresinplanthaltedaroundmid-September;YishengHainan'sremaining750,000-tonfacilityremainsoffline. ◆Futurefacilitymaintenance:TheexpectedcommissioningoftheFuhai300,000-tonnewfacilityremainsaroundlateOctobertotheendofthemonth.Wuliangye's100,000-tonplanisprojectedfortheendofthisyearorearlynextyear,butitisanticipatedthatmodifiedproductsandRPETwillbethemainfocus. Downstream Operations Decline ◆Beveragecompaniesoperateat60-90%capacity,withslightvariationsinsomeareas. ◆Intermsofsheetmaterials,theEastChinaregionoperatesat60-80%,whiletheSouthChinaregionrunsat40-70%. ◆Intheedibleoilfactorysector,theaverageoperatingrateofedibleoilenterprisesisaround60-80%,withslightvariationsinsomeareas. 1-8M beverage consumption weak YoY •In Jan-Aug 2025, soft drink output cumulative YoY growth was 2.5%; beverage retail sales cumulative YoY +0.2%, summer peakdemand returned YoY growth to positive. •Since 2025, the performance of essential consumption sectors such as beverages and edible oils has generally been weak. Onone hand, this is related to the high base number from last year. On the other hand, given that there has been no significantimprovement in the overall consumption ability and willingness of residents, the national subsidies from the end of last yeartonowhave led to a notable crowding-out effect of discretionary consumption on essential consumption. From a sequential perspective,this has also prematurely depleted much of the subsequent consumption potential. Edible oil demand remains neutral •In Jan-Aug 2025, edible oil output cumulatively ros