GTJA期货·能源&化工行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/04/12 Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand's Rubber Output Projected to Rise 2.2% to 4.941 Million Tonnes in 2026】 According to the latest estimates fromQinRex, Thailand’s rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 4.941 million tonnesin 2026, compared with 4.837 million tonnes in 2025.The total tapped area is forecast to edge down 0.2% to 22.325 million rai, from22.359 million rai in 2025.Meanwhile, yield per rai is set to rise 2.3% from 216 kg to 221 kg. The decline in tapped area in 2026 is attributed to rubber farmers in central and southern regions clearing low-yielding old rubber The projected increase in output mainly reflects expectations of fewer rainfall days than last year (extending tapping days),favorablerubber price levels, a lower risk of rubber leaf fall disease outbreaks, and improved yield per rai offsetting the reductionintapped 2.【U.S. Tire Imports Fall 2% YoY in First Two Months】 According toQinRex’slatest data, U.S. tire imports totaled 43.61 million units in the first two months of 2026, down 2% year on year.Among them, passenger car tires reached 25.96 million units, down 3% YoY; truck and bus tires 8.89 million units, down 8% YoY;aircraft tires 45,000 units, up 9% YoY; motorcycle tires 530,000 units, down 10% YoY; and bicycle tires 1.11 million units, up 18% YoY. Over the same period, U.S. tire imports from Thailand amounted to 11.13 million units, down 4% YoY, with 6.34 million passengercartires, down 12% YoY, and 2.11 million truck and bus tires, down 20% YoY. Industry News 3.【Indonesia's Total Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Fall 19% YoY in First Two Months】 According toQinRex’slatest data, Indonesia exported 210,000 tonnes of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) in the first two months of 2026,down26% year on year. Among them, standard rubber exports stood at 205,000 tonnes, down 27% YoY; smoked sheet rubber exports at 5,000 tonnes, down 17% From January to February, natural rubber exports to China totaled 24,000 tonnes, down 61% YoY; mixture rubber exports to China totaled 25,000 tonnes, up150% YoY. Overall, Indonesia’s total exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber in the first two months reached 239,000 tonnes, down19%YoY, with total exports to 4.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Production to Rise 3.4% in February, Consumption to Drop 16.6%】 According to ANRPC’s latest February 2026 report, global natural rubber production is forecast to rise 3.4% year on year to 994,000 tonnes in February,down 23.9% month on month. Global natural rubber consumption is expected to fall 16.6% year on year to 1.088 million tonnes,down 15.9% month onmonth. In the first two months, cumulative global natural rubber production is projected to decrease 0.5% year on year to 2.301million tonnes, while For 2026 as a whole, global natural rubber production is expected to increase 2.2% year on year to 15.324 milliontonnes.Bycountry: Thailand +1.4%,Indonesia-0.8%, China +1.3%, India +4.4%, Vietnam-4.2%, Malaysia +9.9%, Cambodia +2.9%, Myanmar +1.1%, Sri Lanka +12.4%, and other countries+6.5%. Global natural rubber consumption in 2026 is projected to rise 1.4% year on year to 15.602 milliontonnes.Bycountry: China +1.7%, India +3.5%, Thailand-2.8%, Indonesia +1%, Malaysia +9.7%, Vietnam-5.7%, Sri Lanka-5.1%, Cambodia +7.5%, Philippines +13.8%, and other countries +1.6%. The report noted that the expected 3.4% year-on-year growth in global natural rubber production in February alone is mainly driven by improved weather Thailand is expected to remain the world’s largest natural rubber producer, while Indonesia and Vietnam face near-term production constraints due to aseries of structural and agronomic factors. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Natural rubber futures rose first and then fell this week, with domestic contracts declining overall while Singapore Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, RU-BR and RU-JPX RSS3 increased, while the NR-SGX TSR20 spreads Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers rose this week. Traders rotatedpositions for contract rollover, arbitrage positions increased inpositive spreads, and downstream buying was limited to rigid ➢Spot prices of domestic natural rubber moved higher. Futurescontinued to trade within a range with a relatively high centerof gravity. Sellers showed limited willingness to sell at low Other Spreads: Light and DarkColored ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened first and then narrowed, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubber expanded. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢Prices of the main raw material butadiene declined, easing costpressure. However, butadiene rubber (BR) production marginsremained in loss, domestic capacity utilization stayed low, and ex- ➢During the period, news on the geopolitical s