Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/05/10 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【General Administration of Customs: China's Rubber Imports Fell 9.3% YoY to 621,000 Tonnes in April 2026】 Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on May 9 showed that China’s combined imports of natural andsynthetic rubber (including latex) reached 621,000 tonnes in April 2026, down 9.3% from 685,000 tonnes in the same period of2025. FromJanuary to April, China’s total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) stood at 2.812 million tonnes, a year-on-yeardecrease of 2% compared with 2.869 million tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025. 2.【European Replacement Tire Market Sales Up 1.4% in Q1 2026】 On May 8, the EuropeanTyreand Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data, showing that sales in Europe’sreplacement tire market rose 1.4% year-on-year to 64.383 million units in the first quarter of 2026. By segment: passenger car tire sales edged up 1% YoY to 58.144 million units; truck and bus tire shipments increased 1% YoY to 2.674million units; agricultural tire shipments fell 11% YoY to 101,000 units; motorcycle and scooter tire shipments grew 6% YoY to 3.464million units. The Secretary General of ETRMA stated that European replacement tire demand showed signs of recovery in Q1 2026, with passengercartires returning to growth after a sluggish 2025. 3.【China's Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales Fell 20% YoY to 1.406 Million Units in April】 According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of passenger vehicles across Chinareached 1.406 million units in April, down 20% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month. The cumulative retail volume since the start of the year totaled 5.628 million units, a year-on-year decline of 18%. In April, wholesale volume by domestic passenger vehicle manufacturers stood at 2.130 million units, down 3% year-on-year and 10%month-on-month. The cumulative wholesale volume for the year amounted to 7.997 million units, falling 6% year-on-year.Source:Qinrex Industry News 4.【India’s Natural Rubber Prices Hit Record High Amid Tight Supply】 According to Indian media reports on May 8, India’s natural rubber market turned upward, with prices hitting a record high of253 rupeesper kilogram. Tight supply has pushed some transaction prices in the Kottayam market to around 260 rupees per kilogram. GeorgeValy, President of the Indian Rubber Traders Federation, attributed the sharp price rally to the Middle East conflict, as well asextreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall in rubber-growing regions, which have weighed on output. He noted, however, thatsigns ofeasing tensions in the Middle East, combined with heavy summer rainfall across rubber-producing areas in recent days, are expected toimprove production, likely cooling the price surge in the days ahead. Elevated prices have stimulated tapping activities in previouslyundeveloped areas, which may lift raw material arrivals in the market. Indian traders pointed out that domestic price gains are in line with the global uptrend, with international prices currentlyat288 rupeesper kilogram. Rubber prices have remained elevated amid supply shortages and steady industrial demand, underpinning the upwardmomentum. Tapping activities in major producing regions have halted, tightening market supply. Higher crude oil prices and productiondisruptions in Southeast Asia have driven up international rubber prices, further lifting domestic market rates. Valymentioned that rubber farmers are reportedly holding back stocks amid rising prices, but added that prolonged stockpiling isnotfeasible as it would deteriorate rubber quality. From February to April, rising temperatures severely disrupted tapping operations, leading to a suspension of production. Farmers expectcurrent rainfall and the upcoming southwest monsoon in mid-May to boost output for the current season. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Although rainfall has recently occurred in producing areas, the market still maintains bullish speculation over El Niño weatherconditions. Overseas raw material prices remainstubbornly high, keeping firm cost-side support intact for natural rubber. ➢Tire manufacturers that previously suspended production for maintenance have resumed operation as scheduled after the holiday, driving a recovery in industry capacityutilization. Meanwhile, natural rubber spot inventories are in a destocking cycle. Supported by multiple positive factors, the natural rubber market is set to trend stronger post-holiday. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-NR, NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-