能源&化工周刊：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332 Industry News Industry News 1. [ANRPC: Natural Rubber Expected to Be in Short Supply, Supporting 2026 Rubber Prices] According to foreign media reports on February 19, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated thattheglobal natural rubber market is expected to face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026 as accelerated growthin Global natural rubber production rose 1.4% in 2025 and is projected to increase 2.4% to 15.2 milliontonnesin 2026. Theorganization noted that despite higher grower prices since 2025, production growth has remained below expectations due toadverse weather, limited replanting of aging trees, persistent low productivity among smallholders caused by years of weak prices,and land-use changes. In addition, rubber plantations have suffered a widespread outbreak of leaf fall disease, which has spread ANRPC said total global demand is forecast to rise 1.7% to 15.6 milliontonnesin 2026. As major natural rubber consumers, demand This is likely to keep global rubber prices firm. Japanese rubber futures have risen about 3% in 2026 after declining in 2025. Rubberwas the best-performing commodity in 2024, surging 46%. ANRPC stated that this imbalance between consumption and productionis expected to increase upward price pressure and maintain a structural tightness in the global natural rubber market. Thailand,theworld's largest rubber producer, is expected to see stable production in 2026. India's rubber output has been falling since 2022due Industry News 2.【Malaysia’s Natural Rubber Output Down 12.9% YoY in 2025】 According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia on February 12, Malaysia’s natural rubber exports in December2025 fell 27.5% year on year to 32,139tonnes, and down 12.7% month on month. Of these, 49.9% were exported to China, followed by Germany 16.4%, the United Arab Emirates 4.8%, Portugal 3.9%, and Egypt 3.7%. Natural rubberimports in December stood at 72,718tonnes, down 27.5% year on year and up 14.8% month on month. The main imported types were standard rubber, concentrated latex, and natural rubber in other forms, mainly sourced fromThailand, Côte d’Ivoire, the Philippines, Myanmar, etc. Monitored natural rubber production in December was 28,684 Market trends Futures Prices Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The RU-NR and RU-BR spreads widened ahead of the holiday.➢Overseas markets rose during the holiday, narrowing the internal-external spread. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Before the holiday, offers in the imported rubber market rose.Trading activity was dominated by traders rolling positions for contract rollovers, arbitrage positions increased, nearby-to- ➢The price center of domestic natural rubber spot shiftedhigher, driven by positive external macro sentiment and asharp rally in futures. Spot offers followed the futures higher, Other Spreads: Light and DarkColored ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber has widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberhas widened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢In the week before the holiday, the cost side lacked clear short-term direction. ➢Most downstream enterprises and traders gradually closed for theholiday, leaving spot trading sentiment quieter. Nevertheless,some traders offered discounts to stimulate shipments and recover Capital TrendsOpen Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU Supply & Demand Data Supply: Precipitation ➢Major rubber-producing areas in Southeast Asia are mostly in the dry season with limited rainfall. Supply: Temperature Supply: Raw material prices ➢Overseas rubber-producing regions have entered the tapping suspension and production reduction season, with global supplycontracting seasonally. Raw material prices overseas continued to rise during the Spring Festival. Supply: Price Spreads between Raw Materials ➢The price spread between Thai latex and cup lump has widened. Supply:Processing Profit ➢Thailand's rubber processing margins decreased overall. Supply:Delivery Profit ➢Domestic production areas have basically suspended rubber tapping, with prices temporarily ceasing updates. Supply: Thailand's Exports ➢Thailand's natural rubber exports rose month-on-month in December, with exports of all rubber varieties registeringgrowth; TSR exports saw a relatively substantial month-on-month increase. Supply: Thailand's Exports to China ➢In December, the volume of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China rose month-on-month; exports of RSS, TSR andmixture rubber to China also posted a month-on-month increase, while latex exports saw a month-on-month decline. Supply: Indonesia's Exports ➢Indonesia's total natural rubber exports in January fell month-on-month, with both standard rubber and mixture ➢Exports to China continued to drop month-on-month, while the volume of mixture rubber exports re