Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2026/02/23 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1. [ANRPC: Natural Rubber Expected to Be in Short Supply, Supporting 2026 Rubber Prices] According to foreign media reports on February 19, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated thattheglobal natural rubber market is expected to face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026 as accelerated growthinthe automotive industry in both emerging and developed economies boosts consumption. Global natural rubber production rose 1.4% in 2025 and is projected to increase 2.4% to 15.2 milliontonnesin 2026. Theorganization noted that despite higher grower prices since 2025, production growth has remained below expectations due toadverse weather, limited replanting of aging trees, persistent low productivity among smallholders caused by years of weak prices,and land-use changes. In addition, rubber plantations have suffered a widespread outbreak of leaf fall disease, which has spreadacross multiple producing countries and caused yield losses of up to 30% to 35%. Meanwhile, demand growth in China, Europe andthe United States is expected to recover moderately in 2026. This trend may be supported by rising new car registrations in theEU,expected growth in U.S. tire shipments, trade agreements covering rubber products between the EU and India as well as betweenthe U.S. and India, and continued Chinese government incentives for electric vehicle purchases. ANRPC said total global demand is forecast to rise 1.7% to 15.6 milliontonnesin 2026. As major natural rubber consumers, demandin China and India is expected to grow by 1.7% and 3.6% respectively. This is likely to keep global rubber prices firm. Japanese rubber futures have risen about 3% in 2026 after declining in 2025. Rubberwas the best-performing commodity in 2024, surging 46%. ANRPC stated that this imbalance between consumption and productionis expected to increase upward price pressure and maintain a structural tightness in the global natural rubber market. Thailand,theworld's largest rubber producer, is expected to see stable production in 2026. India's rubber output has been falling since 2022dueto low prices, diseases and land conversion to oil palm plantations. The agency added that Côte d'Ivoire is expected to become theworld's third-largest rubber producer, surpassing Vietnam, thanks to the continuous expansion of rubber planting areas and highyields from smallholder farms. Industry News 2.【Malaysia’s Natural Rubber Output Down 12.9% YoY in 2025】 According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia on February 12, Malaysia’s natural rubber exports in December2025 fell 27.5% year on year to 32,139tonnes, and down 12.7% month on month. Of these, 49.9% were exported toChina, followed by Germany 16.4%, the United Arab Emirates 4.8%, Portugal 3.9%, and Egypt 3.7%. Natural rubberimports in December stood at 72,718tonnes, down 27.5% year on year and up 14.8% month on month. The mainimported types were standard rubber, concentrated latex, and natural rubber in other forms, mainly sourced fromThailand, Côte d’Ivoire, the Philippines, Myanmar, etc. Monitored natural rubber production in December was 28,684tonnes, down 25.1% year on year and up 37.3% month on month. Smallholder production accounted for 87.2%,while state-owned plantations accounted for 12.8%. On a quarterly basis, the country’s total production in Q4 2025was 79,247tonnes, down 15.5% from 93,815tonnesin Q3 and down 32.3% from 117,040tonnesin the same periodlast year. For the full year, Malaysia’s total natural rubber output in 2025 was 336,676tonnes, a decrease of 12.9%compared with 386,512tonnesin 2024. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber futures rose simultaneously on both domestic and overseas markets ahead of the holiday. During the SpringFestival holiday, SGX TSR20 was mainly range-bound, while JPX RSS3 climbed. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads➢The RU-NR and RU-BR spreads widened ahead of the holiday. ➢Overseas markets rose during the holiday, narrowing the internal-external spread. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Before the holiday, offers in the imported rubber market rose.Trading activity was dominated by traders rolling positions forcontract rollovers, arbitrage positions increased, nearby-to-distant spreads narrowed, and overall trading sentiment wasmild. ➢The price center of domestic natural rubber spot shiftedhigher, driven by positive external macro sentiment and asharp rally in futures. Spot offers followed the futures higher,yet demand showed no obvious improvement and actualtransaction volume was modest. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRubber ➢The pric