欧洲基金经理调查：增长乐观遇上政策谨慎——更高更长、无衰退的前景

cited by 53% of investors, while an energy price shock and renewed inflation pressure are viewed as the maindownside risk by 41%. The share expecting a higher-for-longer regime has surged to 65% from 23% lastmonth.Investors expect gains, but hold cash: A net 42% of investors are overweight cash, the highest levelsince February 2023. A majority (56%) expects the ECB deposit rate to be higher in 12 months' time, while Europe 38% expect higher euro-area government bond yields and 41% identify hawkish central banks responding toinflation surprises as the most likely trigger for an equity correction. Despite this, equity sentiment remainsresilient, with a net 53% expecting European equities to rise over the next 1-3 months and investors stilllooking for 5.7% upside over the next year.Earnings makethe bull case:Investors expect 7.4% upside in European forward EPS over thenext12 +44 20 7996 7059paulina.strzelinska@bofa.comSebastian Raedler>>Investment Strategist MLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1749sebastian.raedler@bofa.comAndreas Bruckner >>Investment Strategist months, and 76% believe earnings upgrades will be the primary driver of further market gains. 47% expectEuropean equities to outperformthe US over the next 12 months, versus 26% expecting US outperformance.Yet while European investors are becoming more positive on Europe,global allocations stillfavour the US.Selective risk-on stance: Banks remain the largest consensus overweight, Industrials recorded the biggest MLI (UK+44 20 7996 1306andreas.bruckner@bofa.comThomas Pearce, CFA >>Investment Strategist largest underweight, Travel & Leisure deteriorated into underweight territory, and at a net -56% France wasthe least preferred market, reaching a record high, even as preference for Euro-area markets increased.Despite energy's central role in the macro outlook, investors remain net 18% underweight Energy and noinvestor expects it to be Europe's best-performing sector over the next 12 months for a third consecutivemonth. MLI (UK)+44 20 7996 2081tpearce@bofa.com An overall total of 203 panellists with $581bn AUM participated in the survey. 180 participants with$525bn AUM responded to the global FMSquestions and 98 participants with $272bn AUMresponded to the regional FMS questions Survey period: 7th Aug 2026 to 13th Aug 2026. Howto join theFMSpanel Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up toparticipate in the Survey. This can be done bycontacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales 13009244 Exhibit 1:A net 14% of global investors expect global growth to accelerate over the comingExhibit 2: A net 79% of global investors think that the global economy will not see a recession over the next 12 months,a tick down from 80% last month.A net 97% of European investorsproject no recession in Europe, upfrom 86% last month, the most since Apr‘07How likely do you think it is that the economy in this region will see a recession over the next 12months? twelve months, down from21%last month.Anet 50% of European investors think Europeangrowth will accelerate over the coming12 months,down from 54% previouslyHow do you think the region's economy will develop over the next 12 months?Net % Expecting Stronger EconomyGlobal Net% ExpectingRecessionGlobal Exhibit 3:A net35%of investors expect European economic growth to accelerate over thecoming months, compared with a net 6% who expect US growth to accelerate. Meanwhile, a net6% expect Chinese economicgrowthtodecelerateWhat is your view on the outlook for European/US/China's economy over the coming months? Exhibit 4: 65% of European investors expect a higher-for-longer regime over the comingmonths, up significantly from 23% last month, while 21% expect stagflation, up from 20%previouslyWhat regime do you expect the market to be in over the coming three months? the largest upside risk for global growth, followed by Al driven productivity gains at 12%What do you view as the largest upside risk for global growth? pressure as the biggest downside risk for global growth, up from 34% last month, followed bythe weakening US consumer market at 21%,up from 14% previouslyWhat do you view as the largest downside risk for global growth? Exhibit 7:38% of European investors see geopolitical de-escalation as the main catalyst for29% (down sharply from 57% previously)What do you see as the most likely reason for European growth to accelerate? Exhibit 8: 56% of European investors see Middle East instability as the most significantgeopolitical driver over the coming months, followed by fragmentation of global alliances at18%What do you expect to be the most significant geopolitical driver for markets over the coming months? Exhibit 9: A net 21% of global investors think monetary policy is too stimulative globally, upExhibit 10: A net 46% of global investors judge global fiscal policy to be too accommodative, up from7%last month.Anet 21% of European investors consider European monetary policy to betoo restrictive, versus 31% last month