美银2026年6月全球基金经理调查：乐观的多头投资者

The Frozen Bulls 16 June 2026 BofA June Global Fund Manager SurveyFMS Bottom Line: FMS investors are steadfastly bullish (BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up Investment StrategyGlobal to “sell signal” 8.9), albeit a tad less bullish than in May (cash level up to 4.1% from3.9%); the history of FMS suggests this is not a “big top” for risk assets (will be signaledby bonds & voters), but traders take summer chips off table, consumer stocks bestcontrarian play for “peace”. On Macro & Fed: global growth & profit optimism at 3-month highs, but optimism onmacro not off-the-charts; note expectations for interest rates now highest since Sep’22;on the Fed, 40%(was 16%) forecast hikes in next 12 months, and 55% expect“hawkishhold”from Warsh at tomorrow’s FOMC vs. 33% predicting“dovish hold”. MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On Risks & Crowds: biggest tail risks seen as“2ndwave inflation”(34%) and“AIbubble”(28%), most crowded trade“long global semiconductors”(80% = all-time FMShigh); asked what stage of investment cycle AI stocks currently in, 56% say“boom”(i.e.FOMO = more buyers) vs. 21% say“euphoria”(price/value in danger zone–Chart 1). Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com On Asset Allocation & Contrarian Trades: investors trimmed global equity OW from50% to 38%, tech OW from 33% to 26%, cut Europe stocks to biggest UW since Dec'24,bought Japan, materials & banks, now running smallest UW in US dollar since Mar’25;gold now seen as fairly valued 1sttime since Feb’24; June FMS contrarian trades are longbonds, Europe, consumer, REITs, and short commodities, semis, materials, banks. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com On the World Cup: and lastly, 22% of investors say Spain will win the World Cup, 19%say France, 8% say England, Brazil, or Argentina, 6% Portugal, 3% Germany. Notes to Readers Which of the following stages of an investment boom/bubble cycle are AI stocks currently in? Source for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period June 5thto 11th, 2026 198 panellists with $540bn AUMparticipated in the survey. 172participants with $465bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 99 participants with$270bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevantmonth in which they participate. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should haveexperience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 25 to 27.12984459 OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation Timestamp: 16 June 2026 12:31AM EDT Charts of the Month June BofA Global FMSshows investors arebullish, albeita tad less bullish than in May;our broadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, andglobal growth expectations, fell to 6.0 from6.6. Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation BofA FMS cash level rose to 4.1%of AUM, upfrom extremely low 3.9% in May, but still at ahistorically low level. BofA FMS average cash level (% of AUM) FMS equity allocation dipped to net 38% fromnet 50% OWin May; allocation to stocks inMay was highest since Jan'22. Global growth optimism up from net -14% tonet -1% in June; note global profitexpectations also up to 3-month highs; neitherhowever are at levels that say macro optimismis dangerously high. 47%of investors expect a“soft landing”forthe global economy, 40% say“no landing”,just 5% expect a“hard landing.” What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months? A net 34% of FMS investors expect highershort-term rates, the highest level sinceSep'22. The outlook on rates is catching up with theinflation outlook (net 45% predict higher CPI). 28% of FMS investors expect no change toFed funds in the next 12 months. How do you expect the Fed to change the Federal Funds Rate in the next 12 months? 40% of investors expect at least one Fed ratehike in the next 12 months, up from 16% inMay. 28% expect at least one rate cut, downfrom 50% last month. Asked about the upcoming Fed meeting onJune