美银10月全球基金经理调查

14 October 2025 BofA October Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: October FMS investor sentiment most bullish since Feb’25; stock Investment StrategyGlobal allocation at 8-month highs, bond allocation lowest since Oct’22, FMS cash levels at verylow 3.8%, liquidity conditions rated best since Sep'21; full-bull sentiment tempered bygrowing concerns of private credit event and AI bubble (Chart 1). On Macro & Policy: global recession concerns at lowest level since Feb'22, biggest 6-month surge in growth optimism since Oct'20, and expectation of soft landing 54% vs.no landing 33% and hard landing 8%...why the number of investors forecasting higherbond yields now is highest since Jun’22. On Risks & Crowds: #1 most crowded trade is“long gold”(43%), #1 tail risk is“AIbubble (33%), and #1 systemic credit event source now seen as“private equity/credit”(surges to 57%), but FMS positioning shows investors see returns outweighing risks. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On Asset Allocation: investors are the most UW cash since Dec'24, most OWcommodities since Mar'23, most OW EM stocks since Feb'21, and most UW staplessince Apr'21; 54% of investors say AI in bubble, record 60% say global stocks overvalued. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Contrarian Trades: based on FMS positions, contrarian trades for Oct are: long bonds-short stocks, long UK-short EM, long staples-short banks, long energy-short industrials. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com BofA Global FMS most crowded trade, biggest tail risk, and most likely source of credit event Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Notes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Oct 3-9, 2025 193 panellists with $468bn AUMparticipated in the September survey.166 participants with $400bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 95 participants with$198bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significantrisk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does andseeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant monthin which they participate. reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 24 to 26.12886591 OW: overweight; UW: underweight Timestamp: 14 October 2025 12:30AM EDT AA: asset allocation Charts of the Month Our broadestmeasure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, globalgrowth expectations rose to 5.8 from 5.3, thehighest level since Feb'25. Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation BofA FMS average cash level declined from3.9%to 3.8%. BofA Global FMS average cashlevel (%) The“sell”signal for BofA Global FMS cash rulewas last triggered in July when cash fell from4.2% to 3.9; note FMS cash level at or below3.7% is ahard“sell”signal (more details inFlow Show). BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stays at 6.5. Asked about the most likely source of asystemic credit event, 57% of FMS investorssaid“private equity/private credit,”the highestconviction on the source of a systemic creditevent since 2022. FMS macro sentiment continues to recoverand stands at the highestlevel since February. The net share of FMS investors expecting aweaker global economy declined in October to8% from 16% (it was 82% in April). Note that the improvement in global growthexpectations since April has been the biggestsix-month rise since Oct’20. The gap between the price of US stocks (e.g. ameasure of risk appetite) and FMS globalgrowth expectations is narrowing. Recession expectations have dropped to thelowest since Feb’22…net 69% say globalrecession is unlikely. Net % saying global recession likely in next12 months In Apr’25, a peak net 42% of FMS investorssaid global recession was likely. Asked about the most likely outcome for theglobal econom