美银四月全球基金经理调查
14 April 2026 BofA April Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: most bearish Fund Manager Survey (FMS) since Jun'25, expectations for Investment StrategyGlobal growth down most since Mar'22, for inflation highest since May'21…all contrarianpositive for risk assets so long as ceasefire sends oil price <$84/bbl; but not a“close-eyes-and-buy”FMS…no recession say 7/10, no cash surge cash (4.3%), investors stilllong global stocks, so rate cuts and EPS beats needed to sustain new highs. On Macro: outlook for global growth plunges to -36%, for inflation soars to 69%; butwhile investors expect slower growth, few predict recession (70% say unlikely), andmacro base case is soft landing (52%), no landing (32%), not a hard landing (9%). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On Rates: 58% say Fed cuts in '26 (10% say hikes); but for first time since '22 investorsexpect global short rates to rise in next 12 months (46% say ECB hikes); contrariansnote investor expectations for steeper yield curve now lowest since Nov'22. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com On Risk: geopolitical tail risk means investors forecast oil at $84/bbl end-26; mostcrowded trades = long oil (24%) and long semiconductors (24%); expectations of Dem.sweep in US midterms rising (36%), for split DEM House/GOP Senate falling (40%). Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com On AA: April rotation out of Japan stocks (1stbig UW since Nov'24), EU stocks (least OWsince Jan'25), global banks (least OW since Oct'24), short-cover in US dollar (least UWsince Mar’25), investors remain very long EM stocks and raised OW in tech stocks. Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Contrarian Trades: FMS says Q2 bull surprise = lower oil, inflation + rate cuts…mostbullish for bonds, consumer discretionary, REITs, Japan; FMS says Q2 bear surprise =recession risks keep rising…most bearish for commodities, materials, and EM stocks. Notes to Readers Source for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Apr 2ndto 9th, 2026193 panellists with $563bn AUMparticipated in the April survey (note¾of investors responded before theceasefire announcement on Apr 8th).170 participants with $511bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 90 participants with$247bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should haveexperience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 25 to 27.12958457 Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevantmonth in which they participate. OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation Timestamp: 14 April 2026 12:30AM EDT Charts of the Month The April 2026 BofA Global Fund ManagerSurveysaw global investor sentiment reachthe most bearish level since Jun'25; ourbroadest measure of FMS sentiment, based oncash levels, equity allocation, and globalgrowth expectations, dropped sharply to 3.7from 5.6. Chart2: BofA Global FMSinvestor sentiment drops to lowest since Jun’25Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation Prior recent lows for FMS global investorsentiment include 1.7 in Apr’25 (‘tarifftantrum’), 1.6 in Oct’23 (SPX low), and 0.3 inOct’22 (UK pension crisis) & Jul’22 (post-SVB). BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA FMS cash level remained at4.3%...highest since May’25. Cash levels are an input for the BofA Bull &Bear Indicator, which is down from 6.3 to 6.1. The FMS cash level is well below prior highs of4.8% in Apr’25 and 6.3% in Oct’22. 52% of FMS investors see“soft landing”asthe most likely outcome for the globaleconomy, while another 32% expect“nolanding.” While investors are more bearish on globalgrowth in April, the probability of a“hardlanding”is still just 9%. Global growth expectations dropped sharplyfrom 7% to-36%, lowest since Aug’25. Investor macro expectations and US equityprices have once again diverged. Globalequity allocation dropped to net 13%overweight from 37%…least overweight sinceJul’25. Net % FMS overweight equities (LHS) & global equities vs 60/30/10 basket (RHS) Prior recent lows for equity al
