全球基金经理调查：现金匮乏、资本支出充裕、急需降息

Cash poor, capex rich, rate cut needy 18 November 2025 BofA November Global Fund Manager Survey Investment StrategyGlobal Bottom Line: investors bullish…most OW stocks since Feb’25, most OW commoditiessince Sep’22, running very low 3.7% cash levels (“sell signal”); FMS positioning a headwindnot tailwind for risk assets, froth to correct further without Fed Dec rate cut, EM/banksmost vulnerable to proper Q4 risk-off move, retail/UK assets the contrarian longs. On Macro: investors bullish on Goldilocks, 53% expect soft landing (vs 37% no landing,just 6% hard landing); global growth expectations turn +ve (net 3%) for 1sttime since Dec’24; good news…53% say AI already increasing productivity; bad news…1sttime in 20years investors say companies“overinvesting”(read“slow down, hyperscalers”). On AA, Crowds & Risks: #1 most crowded trade = long Magnificent 7 (54%), #1 tailrisk = AI bubble (45%), #1 credit event source = private credit (59%); net 34% OW globalstocks (this normally closer to 60% at multi-year tops); investors most bullish on EM,healthcare (most OW since Dec'22); slashed exposure to UK (most since Oct'22) anddiscretionary (record decline); cut tech exposure by most in 8 months. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Onthe Year Ahead: respondents say best performing assets = international (42%) &US stocks (22% - Chart 1), best performing equity indices = MSCI EM (37%) & Nasdaq(13%), best performing FX = Japanese yen (30%); most bullish 2026 catalyst for Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Contrarian Trades: based on Nov FMS positions: long cash-short stocks, long sterling,long FTSE-short EM, long discretionary-short banks, long energy-short healthcare. Myung-Jee JungInvestmentStrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Notes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Nov 7-13, 2025 202 panellists with $550bn AUMparticipated in the November survey.172 participants with $475bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 95 participants with$209bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significantrisk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant month BofA Securities does andseeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation Charts of the Month Ourbroadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, globalgrowth expectations rose to 6.4 from 5.7, the BofA FMS average cash level dropped to 3.7%from 3.8%. Note cash levels of 3.7% or lowerhas occurred 20 times since 2002,and onevery occasion stocks fell and Treasuriesoutperformed in the following 1-3 months (see BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stays at 6.3. Asked about the most likelyoutcomefor theglobal economy over the next year…53%expect soft landing, 37% expect no landing On the macro…FMS expectations for globalgrowth turned positive (net 3% from net -8%) in November for the 1sttime this year.Economic expectations are catching up withstock prices. Asked about the most likely source of a creditevent…59% of FMS investors said“privateequity/private credit,”the highest convictionon source of a systemic credit event since we “Long Magnificent 7”is once again the mostcrowded trade per 54% of FMS investors,overtaking last month's top responsewhich November saw an uptick of concerns around …asked about the biggest 'tail risk' for theeconomy and the markets, 45% of FMSinvestors said“AI bubble”(up from 33% last AI stocks are already in a bubble according to53% of FMS investors (down from a record Note a record 63% of FMS participants believeglobal equity markets are currently overvalued(up from 60% last month). The good news…53% FMS investors think AI isalready increasing productivity, a 3-month 15% s