全球基金经理调查：现金崩溃

The Crash in Cash 16 December 2025 BofADecember Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: most bullish FMS of past 3½years, macro optimism highest since Aug'21 Investment StrategyGlobal on“run-it-hot”belief, allocation to stocks+commodities highest since Feb'22, cash levelatrecord-low 3.3% (down from 3.7%); Dec FMS pushes BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to7.9, vclose to“sell signal”; bullish positioning remains biggest headwind for risk assets. On Macro& Policy: profit expectations (net 29%) highest since Aug'21 as 57% predictmacro soft landing, 37% say no landing and record-low 3% say hard landing; liquidityconditions rated 3rdbest of past 17 years as most investors since Apr'22 predict higherbond yields, 69% of investors expect Kevin Hassett to be the next Fed Chairman. On Crowds & Risks: AI bubble (37%) = biggest tail risk; most likely source of creditevent = private credit (40%) & hyperscaler capex (29%); long Magnificent 7 (54%) &long gold (29%) = most crowded trades. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On AA: investors most OW stocks since Dec'24, most UW bonds since Oct'22, most OWcommodities since Sep’22; biggest OWs in banks & healthcare, biggest UWs in cash,staples, energy; big rotation into US stocks, tech (largest since Jul'24), materials (largestsince Apr’24), out of bonds, healthcare, staples. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com FMS contrarian trades: long cash & bonds, short stocks & commodities; long UKstocks, short EM stocks; long energy & staples, short tech & banks. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Chart1:FMS cash level drops to record low 3.3%1-month MSCI ACWI return when cash <3.6% = -2% (see Table 2, page 13) Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Notes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Dec 5-11, 2025 238 panellists with $364bn AUMparticipated in the December survey.203 participants with $569bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 119 participants with$293bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience inrelevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant monthin which they participate. reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 24 to 26.12912964 OW: overweight; UW: underweight Timestamp: 16 December 2025 12:30AM EST AA: asset allocation Charts of the Month Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash level, equity allocation,andglobal growth expectations, rose to 7.4 from6.4, the highest level since Jul'21. Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation Today’s level of optimism was seen in thefollowing periods since 2001: Aug’03-Apr’04,Dec’05-Jan’06 (subprime bubble), Aug’09-Apr’10 (Fed QE), Nov’10-Feb’11 (GFCrecovery), Jan-Dec’13 (BRICS), Feb-May’15(ECB QE), Jan’18 (tax cuts), and Nov’20-Jul’21(post Covid boom). December optimismdrove allocation ofcyclical risk assets (equities + commodities) tothe highest level since Feb'22; equityallocation rose to net 42% OW (highest sinceDec'24) and commodity allocation rose to net18% OW (highest since Sep'22). The jump in exposure to cyclical risk assets isdiverging from soft data (ISM manufacturingPMI at 48.2 in November) and pointing to asharp acceleration of cyclical sectors in theeconomy that have lagged in this cycle(particularly manufacturing). Asked about the most likely outcome for theglobal economy in 2026…57% expect softlanding and 37% expect no landing, while just3% expect hard landing, the lowest level ofpast 2½years. On the macro…FMS global growthexpectations rose to the most optimistic levelsince Aug'21 (net 18%, up from net 3%). Economic expectations are catching up withstock prices. On the micro…FMS global profit expecta