全球基金经理调查1118

Cash poor, capex rich, rate cut needy 18 November 2025 BofANovember Global Fund Manager Survey Investment StrategyGlobal Bottom Line: investors bullish…most OW stocks since Feb’25, most OW commoditiessince Sep’22, running very low 3.7% cash levels (“sell signal”); FMS positioninga headwindnottailwind for risk assets, froth to correct further without Fed Dec rate cut, EM/banksmost vulnerable to proper Q4 risk-off move, retail/UK assets the contrarian longs. On Macro: investors bullish on Goldilocks, 53% expect soft landing (vs 37% no landing,just6% hard landing); global growth expectations turn +ve (net 3%) for 1sttime sinceDec’24; good news…53% say AI already increasing productivity; bad news…1sttime in 20years investors say companies“overinvesting”(read“slow down, hyperscalers”). On AA, Crowds & Risks: #1 most crowded trade = long Magnificent 7 (54%), #1 tailrisk = AI bubble (45%), #1 credit event source = private credit (59%);net 34% OW globalstocks (this normally closer to 60% at multi-year tops); investors most bullish on EM,healthcare (most OW since Dec'22); slashed exposure to UK (most since Oct'22) anddiscretionary (record decline); cut tech exposure by most in 8 months. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Onthe Year Ahead: respondents say best performing assets = international (42%) &US stocks(22% - Chart 1), best performing equity indices = MSCI EM (37%) & Nasdaq(13%), best performing FX = Japanese yen (30%); most bullish 2026 catalyst forinvestors= AI productivity gains, most bearish catalyst = inflation & Fed rate hikes. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Contrarian Trades: based on Nov FMS positions: long cash-short stocks, long sterling,long FTSE-short EM, long discretionary-short banks, long energy-short healthcare. Myung-Jee JungInvestmentStrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Which of the following do you expect to be the best performing asset class in 2026? Notes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Nov 7-13, 2025 202 panellists with $550bn AUMparticipated in the November survey.172 participants with $475bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 95 participants with$209bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significantrisk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does andseeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant monthin which they participate. reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 26 to 28.12903612 OW: overweight; UW: underweight Timestamp: 18 November 2025 12:30AM EST AA: asset allocation Charts of the Month Ourbroadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, globalgrowth expectations rose to 6.4 from 5.7, thehighest level since Feb'25. Chart2:BofA Global FMS investor sentimentat 9-month highPercentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation BofA FMS average cash level dropped to 3.7%from 3.8%. Note cash levels of 3.7% or lowerhas occurred 20 times since 2002,and onevery occasion stocks fell and Treasuriesoutperformed in the following 1-3 months (seeThe Flow Show). BofA Global FMSaverage cash level (%) BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stays at 6.3. Asked about the most likelyoutcomefor theglobal economy over the next year…53%expect soft landing, 37% expect no landing(most since Jan'25), and just 6% expect hardlanding. What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months? On the macro…FMS expectations for globalgrowth turned positive (net 3% from net -8%)in November for the 1sttime this year. Economic expectations are catching up withstock prices. Asked about the most likely source of a creditevent…59% of FMS investors said“privateequity/private credit,”the highest convictionon so