美银1月全球基金经理调查

Greedland BofAJanuary Global Fund Manager Survey Bottom Line:most bullish FMS since Jul'21; global growth expectations surge, cashlevels at new record-low 3.2%, protection against equity correction lowest since Jan'18;BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at hyper-bull 9.4 says increase risk hedges & safe havens. On Macro: growth & profit optimism surge; net 38% expect stronger economy, highestsince Jul’21; expectations for“boom”highest since Sep'21, for“recession”(9%) lowestsince Jan'22; no landing (49%) now investor base case (Chart 1 - vs 44% soft, 5% hard). On Rates: notable inflection lower in rate cut optimism, but liquidity conditions seen asbest since peak QE Sep'21, higher-than-normal risk-taking at 4-year highs, and net 48% OnPolitics & Risks: investors see US midterms Trump wave (16%) as likely as“bluewave”(14%; note base case 60% is DEM House/GOP Senate); for first time since Oct’24geopolitical conflict #1 tail risk(AI bubble #2) & most crowded trade = long gold. On AA: most OW stocks (net 48%) since Dec’24, most OW commodities (26%) sinceJun'22, most UW bonds (35%) since Sep’22; banks = #1 sector OW; biggest staples UWsince Feb’14; first time since Jan'22 investors expect HY bonds to outperform IG. FMSContrarian Trades: long cash/bonds-short commods/stocks, long IG-short HYbonds, long staples-short banks, long energy-short pharma, long UK stocks-short EM. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorbany losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Charts of the Month The January 2026 BofA Global Fund ManagerSurvey says global investor sentiment is themost bullish since Jul’21…our broadestmeasure of FMS sentiment, based on cashlevels, equity allocation, and global growthexpectations, rose to 8.1 from 7.3. Chart2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment highest since Jul'21Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cashlevel, and equity allocation BofA FMS cash level dropped to a new recordlowof 3.2% (from 3.3% last month); note incontrast the pessimistic FMS cash level seenin Apr’25 (4.8%) & Oct’22 (6.3%). Inputs from the Jan’26 FMS push the BofABull & Bear Indicator to a hyper-bull 9.4 level,up from 9.3 last week (note the“old”BofA Bull& Bear Indicator rose to 7.7 from 7.5). In the Jan FMS, investors were asked about themost likely outcome for the 2026 US midtermelections (currently Republicans hold majorityin both the US House and the Senate). A Democratic House & Republican Senate isthe most likely outcome to the Nov 5thelection according to 60% of FMS investors; just 14%expect a“blue wave”(Democratic House &Democratic Senate), lower than the 16% thatexpect Republicans to maintain majority in On the macro…FMS expectations for globaleconomic growth rose to net 38% from net18%, the highest level since Jul'21. Net % expecting stronger global economy and S&P 500 (YoY %) For the past two years, economic performancehas lagged that of the S&P 500 index; they arenow more aligned. Just 9% of FMS investors say a globalrecession is likelyin the next 12 months, thelowest level since Jan’22; in contrast, 69%forecast recession back in Apr’25. Separately the share of investors expecting a “boom”in the next 12 months rose to thehighest level since Sep’21 (34%). Net 44% of FMS investors expect globalprofits to improve in the next 12 months,themost since Jul’21. Asked to rate market liquidity conditions, net66% of FMS investors said they were positive,a direct result of massive global rate cuts inthe past two years. Chart8:Liquidity conditions seen as best since Sep’21Net % of FMS investors rating liquidity conditions as positive Since 2008, FMS investors have only ratedliquidity conditions better than today in Sep’21(a month or two before the Fed’s balancesheet & QE policies peaked). Net 48% of FMS investors say they have nottaken out any form of protection against asharp fall in equity markets, highest sinceJan’18. Low levels of stock market hedging areirrelevant in a world of positive surprises; butit matters greatly if surprises suddenly turngreatly. Askedfor the most likely source of a creditevent…39% of investors said“privateequity/private credit”…and 35% said“AIhyperscaler capex.” Asked for thebiggest“tail risks”for investors,geopolitical conflict (28%) and 'AI bubble'(27%) were seen as the riskiest. “Long gold”was the most crowded trade inJanuary (51%, up sharply from 29% inDecember), replacing“Long Magnificent 7”(now 27%, down from 54%). Note that a record-high net 45% of investorssay gold is overvalued; meanwhile gold priceshit a new high of $4671/oz. Looking at some asset allocation rel