欧洲基金经理调查：关税影响

15 April 2025 Investors brace for a US-led global growth slowdownA net 82% of survey participants think the global economy will weaken over the coming Equity StrategyEurope year, the highest proportion on record (with data going back 25 years) on the back of theTrump administration’s tariff increases. Investors are most gloomy on US growth, whicha net 89% expect to slow in the near term, while only a net 4% expect weaker growth inChina, given stimulus hopes. Recession fears are on the rise, with 49% seeing a hard-landing as the most likely scenario for the global economy over the coming 12 months,up from only 11% last month. Investors’cash levels are up (4.8% globally, 4.5% inEurope), while bond yield projections are down, with a net 5% seeing downside for 10-year yields, the first negative reading this year. Andreas Bruckner>>Investment StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1306andreas.bruckner@bofa.com Hopes for a European decoupling are down but not outA net 37% of respondents expect weaker growth in Europe over the coming 12 months, down from a net 60% that expected stronger growth last month, though thisnonetheless keeps the gap to global growth expectations at the upper end of the 20-year range. 48% consider German fiscal stimulus to be a game changer, allowingEuropean macro to decouple from US headwinds, while 44% think Europe’s openeconomy will not stay immune. A net 57% project higher inflation globally (with a largemajority expecting Trump’s policies to have a positive impact), while a mere net 5%expect higher inflation in Europe. Sebastian Raedler>>Investment StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1749sebastian.raedler@bofa.com Thomas Pearce, CFA>>Investment StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 2081tpearce@bofa.com Still bullish on EU equities, as rotation out of US continues Paulina Strzelinska>>Quant StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 7059paulina.strzelinska@bofa.com Investor bullishness has cooled, with a net 19% expecting near-term gains for Europeanequities, down from 30% last month, while a net 56% project upside in the next 12months, down from 67%. A plurality anticipates Europe to be the best performing equitymarket globally this year, with a net 22% saying they are overweight European equitiesin a global context (though this is down from 39% last month) and a net 36% reportingthat they are underweight US equities, the highest in almost two years. Notes to readers An overall total of 195 panellists with$444bn AUM participated in the survey.164 participants with $386bn AUMresponded to the global FMS questionsand 106 participants with $204bn AUMresponded to the regional FMSquestions. Banks fall out of favour amid a pro-defensive rotation A net 7% expect downside for European cyclicals relative to defensives, while last montha net 50% were expecting cyclical outperformance. The small caps’revival has been cutshort, with a net 22% projecting downside relative to large caps over the comingmonths, after 37% were looking for upside in March. A net 56% expect high-qualitystocks to outperform low-quality stocks, up from 37%. Banks see the largest cut insector positioning this month and lose the spot as the consensus overweight in Europeto insurance, with utilities and healthcare rising into the top-3. Cyclical sectors dominatethe lowest ranks, with autos and retail the least preferred sectors. However, the cyclicalGerman equity market remains the most preferred among European countries. Survey period: 4thApril 2025 to 10thApril 2025. How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichaelHartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey receive thefull set of results for the months inwhich they participate. European macro overview Exhibit 1: A net 82% of global investors project global growth to slow, the highest proportion onrecord (with data going back 25 years). A net 37% of European investors think European growth willslow over the coming 12 months, versus 60% that expected an acceleration last month.How do you think the region's economy will develop over the next 12 months? Exhibit 2: A net 42% of global investors think that the global economy will see a recession over thenext 12 months, while a net 15% of European investors expect this to be the case in EuropeHow likely do you think it is that the economy in this region will see a recession over the next 12 months? Exhibit 3: 89% of European investors expect US growth to slow over the coming months, up from83% last month, while 7% expect growth to flatline, down from 13% last monthWhat is the outlook for the US economy over the coming months? Exhibit 4: 56% of European investors expect China growth to flatline, down from 63% last month,while 22% expect a growth slowdown, up from 3% previouslyWhat is your view on the outlook for China’s economy over the coming months? Exhibit 5: 33% of European investors expect growth to flatline in Europe in the mo