欧洲基金经理调查：原油冲击下的觉醒——投资者为增长冲击，尤其是欧洲的增长冲击做准备

Europe by investors in response to the inflation shock following the Iran conflict, with thecaveat that around 80% of participants responded to the survey before last week's US/ BofA Iran ceasefire announcement.Anet 36% of respondents think the global economy willweaken over the coming year, the most since August last year and compared to a net39% seeing a global growth acceleration back in February. Across regions, investorshave turned most gloomy on Europe, with a net 25% now expecting growth to slow,compared to a net 66% that expected acceleration back in February on the back ofsupport from fiscal stimulus. Recession concerns remain reasonably low,with 79% ofinvestors seeing a recession as unlikely over the next year, close to recent months.Oilexpectedtostayhigh,reinforcingstagflationconcerns61% of investors expect Brent crude prices to stay above $80/bbl by year-end, leading AnalyticsAndreas Bruckner >>Investment Strategist +44 20 7996 1306andreas.bruckner@bofa.comSebastian Raedler>>Investment StrategistMLI (UK) 71% to expect higher European core inflation over the coming twelve months, the +44 20 7996 1749sebastian.raedler@bofa.comThomas Pearce, CFA >>Investment StrategistMLI (UK) largest proportion since June 2021.Stagflation is considered the mainmacro regime bya record 58%of investors.Anet 4% now expect higher short-termrates globally,thehighest reading since November2022,while a net 26% expect higher10-yearbondyields, halving from last month as growth concerns start to emerge. A plurality ofrespondents (38%) sees hawkish central banks as the biggest risk for equities, nearlydouble last month's level.Still bullish on EU equities but relative appeal has faded +44 20 7996 2081tpearce@bofa.comPaulina Strzelinska>>Quant StrategistMLI (UK) +44 20 7996 7059paulina.strzelinska@bofa.com Europe isperceived as arelative loserfromthe lranwar,with investors'overweight inEuropean equities continuing to fade, while other regions have either seen improvements (US) or lesser declines (EM).That said, the level of bullishness onEuropean equities outright remains fairly resilient, with a net 33% of respondents seeingupside for the market over the coming months (little changed from last month), while anet 63% still see upside over the next year (71% previously). Meanwhile, FOMO (fear ofmissing out) is on the rise, with the share of respondents worried about reducing equityexposure by too much, thereby missing out on a rally, up from 21% to 46%.Basicresourcesnowmostfavoured,aheadofdefensives An overall total of 193 panellists with $563bn AUM participated in the survey.170 participants with $511bn AUMresponded to the global FMS questionsand 90 participants with $247bn AUMresponded to the regional FMSquestions. A net 4% of respondents see downside for European cyclicals relative to defensives, the highest reading in favour of defensives in a year.Basic resources has becomethe largestsector overweight, followed by telecoms (which has seen one of the biggestimprovements in positioning this month)and healthcare.Positioning in tech,banks andindustrials has dropped closer to neutral, while autos and media remain the leastpreferred sectors, now joined by real estate. Utilities and energy are expected to be thebest performing sectors overthe next twelve months. 2026. Investors/clients are encouragedto sign up to participate in the SurveyThis can be done by contacting MichaelHartnett or your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey receive thefull set of results for the months inwhich they participate. Exhibit 1: A net 36% of global investors expect global growth to slow, versus 7% that expected acceleration previously. A net 8% of European investors think European growth will slow over thecoming twelvemonths, while39%expected growthacceleration last monthHow do you think the region's economy will develop over the next twelve months?Net% ExpectingStrongerEconomyGlobal sharply from 14% last month, while 25% think the economy willflatline, down from 54% previouslyWhat do you expect to happen to the European economy over the coming months? Exhibit 3: 58% of European investors expect the US economy to flatline in the coming months, downmarginally from 61% last month, while the share that sees US growth slowing has gone up from18%to29%What is the outlook for the US economy over the coming months? changed from last month, while 33% expect growth to slow, up 21% previouslyWhat is your view on the outlook for China's economy over the coming months? Exhibit 5: A net 45% of global investors think that the global economy will not see a recession overthe next twelve months,down from 68% last month.A net 63% of European investors project norecessioninEurope,downfrom96%lastmonthHow likely do you think it is that the economy in this region will see a recession over the next 12 months? Exhibit 6: 52% of global investors see a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the globaleconomy, up from 44% last mo