亚洲基金经理调查 ： 对更高的通胀预期持之以恒

Holding ground against higherinflationexpectations 16 April 2024 FMS votes for an acceleration in global growth momentumThe Global Fund Manager Survey upgraded its view of the world economy by the biggest margin in the post-COVID era, underscoring the message from our growth indicatorsthat a global upturn is in motion. SeeBofA GPS: The missing piece 28 Mar 2024. Themarket view rhymes with our long-term bullishness, with only 23% of the panelistsseeing a double-digit correction in global equities this year. Though euphoric sentimentamid rising bond yields warrants a close tab on stock-bond correlations, bond volatilitiesand market breadth to avoid getting caught off-guard. SeeAfter the rally 11 Apr 2024. Predictive AnalyticsAsia Earnings boost to drive market upside in Asia Ritesh Samadhiya, CFA>>Equity StrategistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7907ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com TheFMS assessment of the APAC ex-Japan economy and markets, in contrast, stagnatedat elevated levels, with net 45% expecting a stronger economy and 83% counting onhigher levels in the regional equity markets in the next 12 months. Much of which islikely to be derived from a boost in corporate earnings as valuations tread at fair levels.The caveat is that the upside has come at the cost of higher inflation expectations (net13% expect higher inflation in APAC ex-Japan in next 12 months vs -43% in January). Aritra Baksi, CFA>>Equity StrategistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7914aritra.baksi@bofa.com Crawling back into the radar Masashi Akutsu>>StrategistBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 7754masashi.akutsu@bofa.com The tone on China, too, improved on the margin. Net 28% of the panelists expect astronger economy over the next 12 months, versus -10% in February, after a string ofabove-expected prints. The survey reflects a more patient wait-and-watch approach tothe equity markets, as allocations tick up for the second month in a row. Yet, the long-term prospects remain uncomfortably dispirited, with calls for structural de-rating. Tony Lin, CFA>>Equity StrategistBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 8123tony.y.lin@bofa.com Thego-to market in the region The FMS stays overwhelmingly positive onJapan, with 7 in 8 panelists expectingpositive returns in the next 12 months, with scant calls for a peak anytime soon, ascorporate governance reforms gather momentum. Net 70% expect the economy tostrengthen in the next 12 months, with forex intervention expected to strike when theUSDJPY goes past 155. Dovish remarks in the March BoJ meeting have muddled thetimelines for the official declaration to an end to deflation and the next interest rateraise, with the third quarter of the calendar emerging as the most likely window. FMS: Fund Manager Survey Notes to readers A total of 260 panelists with $719bnAUM participated in the survey. 224participants with $638bn AUMresponded to the global FMS questionsand 144 participants with $319bn AUMresponded to the regional FMSquestions. A barbell oftech, industrials, energy, and banks Bubble or not, the FMS votedalmostunanimously in favor of the semiconductor cycle,with an overweight allocation not just for the sector, but the broader technologycomplex in general. Encouragingly though, it is no longer just a tech/industrials story, asenergy and banks join the fray. Among markets, Taiwan pipped India to the second spotafter Japan, while the FMS strayed away from China. Noticeably, the positive impulse ofthe Corporate Value-Up Program in Korea is yet to make a dent on market allocations. Survey period: 5–11 April 2024 How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichaelHartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Participants in the survey receive thefull set of results for the months inwhich they participate. Holding ground against higher inflationexpectations Exhibit1:Net % FMS investors expecting a strongerGlobal /Asia Pacific ex-Japan economyThe Global FMS voted in favor of an acceleration in the growth momentum of the global economy, while that on the APAC ex-Japan economy stagnated at elevated levels Exhibit2:FMS opinion about the potential of a double-digit correction in global equities in 2024Contrarians area rare breed: despite euphoric sentiment,only 23%seea double-digit correction this year 68%FMS opinion about the potential of a double-digit correction in global equities in 2024 Exhibit3:FMS view of Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months83% ofinvestors anticipate Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities to rise in the next 12 months Exhibit4:Net % FMS investors expecting bettercorporate profits inAsia Pacific ex-JapanNet63%of participantsexpect stronger profits in the next 12 months–a top quintile outcome Exhibit5:Net % FMS investors saying Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are overvaluedNet 15% of investors perceive the regional equities as undervalued, a notch above the long-term average Exhibit6:Net % FMS investorsexpect