亚洲基金经理调查 ： 对更高的通胀预期持之以恒

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 15. 12682074 Asia Fund Manager Survey Holding ground against higher inflation expectations FMS votes for an acceleration in global growth momentum The Global Fund Manager Survey upgraded its view of the world economy by the biggest margin in the post-COVID era, underscoring the message from our growth indicators that a global upturn is in motion. See BofA GPS: The missing piece 28 Mar 2024. The market view rhymes with our long-term bullishness, with only 23% of the panelists seeing a double-digit correction in global equities this year. Though euphoric sentiment amid rising bond yields warrants a close tab on stock-bond correlations, bond volatilities and market breadth to avoid getting caught off-guard. See After the rally 11 Apr 2024. Earnings boost to drive market upside in Asia The FMS assessment of the APAC ex-Japan economy and markets, in contrast, stagnated at elevated levels, with net 45% expecting a stronger economy and 83% counting on higher levels in the regional equity markets in the next 12 months. Much of which is likely to be derived from a boost in corporate earnings as valuations tread at fair levels. The caveat is that the upside has come at the cost of higher inflation expectations (net 13% expect higher inflation in APAC ex-Japan in next 12 months vs -43% in January). Crawling back into the radar The tone on China, too, improved on the margin. Net 28% of the panelists expect a stronger economy over the next 12 months, versus -10% in February, after a string of above-expected prints. The survey reflects a more patient wait-and-watch approach to the equity markets, as allocations tick up for the second month in a row. Yet, the long-term prospects remain uncomfortably dispirited, with calls for structural de-rating. The go-to market in the region The FMS stays overwhelmingly positive on Japan, with 7 in 8 panelists expecting positive returns in the next 12 months, with scant calls for a peak anytime soon, as corporate governance reforms gather momentum. Net 70% expect the economy to strengthen in the next 12 months, with forex intervention expected to strike when the USDJPY goes past 155. D ovish remarks in the March BoJ meeting have muddled the timelines for the official declaration to an end to deflation and the next interest rate raise, with the third quarter of the calendar emerging as the most likely window. A barbell of tech, industrials, energy, and banks Bubble or not, the FMS voted almost unanimously in favor of the semiconductor cycle, with an overweight allocation not just for the sector, but the broader technology complex in general. Encouragingly though, it is no longer just a tech/industrials story, as energy and banks join the fray. Among markets, Taiwan pipped India to the second spot after Japan, while the FMS strayed away from China. Noticeably, the positive impulse of the Corporate Value-Up Program in Korea is yet to make a dent on market allocations. 16 April 2024 Predictive Analytics Asia Ritesh Samadhiya, CFA >> Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 7907 ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com Aritra Baksi, CFA >> Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 7914 aritra.baksi@bofa.com Masashi Akutsu >> Strategist BofAS Japan +81 3 6225 7754 masashi.akutsu@bofa.com Tony Lin, CFA >> Equity Strategist BofAS Japan +81 3 6225 8123 tony.y.lin@bofa.com FMS: Fund Manager Survey Notes to readers A total of 260 panelists with $719bn AUM participated in the survey. 224 participants with $638bn AUM responded to the global FMS questions and 144 participants with $319bn AUM responded to the regional FMS questions. Survey period: 5 – 11 April 2024 How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales representative. Participants in the survey receive the full set of results for the months in which they participate. Accessible version Timestamp: 16 April 2024 01:03AM E