日本：市场洞察-BCD Travel

Economic growth and inflation outlook Growth and inflation to ease in 2024 Japan’s growth in GDP (grossdomestic product) strengthened from 0.9%to2.0%in2023, and yetthe economywasessentially stagnant in the final quarter. A fading of pent-up consumer spending and a loss of economicmomentum in export markets is expected to see growth slip back to just0.6%in2024. Spending remains weak among Japanese consumers, as real incomes are still negative, having failed to keep pacewith inflation. In time, the strain from the dip in real incomes will ease, and this will pave the wayforconsumption torecover. Helped by labor shortages and robust corporate earnings, theSpring Negotiationis pointing toward wagerisessimilarto,or modestly higher than in 2023. Rising wages alongside moderating inflation should ease some ofthe real income burden on consumers. But any immediate recovery in consumer spending will bedampenedbythe continued erosion of post-pandemic pent-up demand. Exports were generally weak during the final quarter of 2023. While demand for capital goods from Asia and theU.S. should be supportive in 2024, credit constraints combined with an easing of pent-up demand for motorvehicles will ensure only gradualgains for Japaneseexports. In general, exports are likely to be sluggishthroughout 2024. Inflation advanced from 2.5% to3.3%in 2023. As the effects of past pricerisesincreasinglyfade from thecalculations, Oxford Economicsexpects inflation to slip to1.8%in 2024 and then further to0.8%in 2025. Economic outlook for Japan’s key cities Aside from Tokyo and Nagoya, growth prospects are generally weak There has and is likely to be littlematerial difference in the performanceof these three cities’ economies. All sawtheir gross domestic product (GDP)contract by almost5%in 2020.Recovery has been slow. A return to2019 levels of activity is not expecteduntil2025. Prospects are slightlyweaker for Okayama’s economy. Recovery has been slow in northern Japan.By2025, GDP in Sapporo and Sendai is stillexpected to be around1% lessthan it was in2019. Niigata should perform a little better,with GDP finally moving above pre-pandemic levels in 2025. But its economymay be only0.4%larger. All three cities’ economiescontracted by around4%in 2020. Tokyo’s economy led the recovery, withactivity restored by 2022. By2025, its GDPshould be5%larger than in 2019. Theprospects for Nagoya are also encouraging,with3.4%expansion expected. While all saw activitymoved above 2019 levelsin2023, Kumamoto hadthe slightly strongerrecovery. And it shouldlead the way through2025, with GDP3%largerthan in 2019. Kagoshimawill trail with an economyjust1%bigger by 2025. In contrast, Osaka’seconomy may finallyrecover in2025. Kyoto, having suffered areversal in 2023, may stillbe morethan1%from recovery in 2025. Japan’s air travel market Domestic air travel demand recovery has stalled Almost 81 million passengers flew on domestic air services within Japan in 2019. By2021, demand haddropped by more than60%to just over 30 million. Real progress towards recovery was made during2022. At the start of the year, passenger numbers were still47%below their pre-pandemic level. By the end of the year, the deficit had been cut to just7%. Since then, the market has found it difficult to secure a full return of domestic passengers. Throughout2023,their numbers have remained below 2019 levels, with little sign ofthe gap narrowing.Despite rising by34%year-over-year, domestic travel in 2023 was still7%away from a full recovery. Demand growth is also losingmomentum, with the pace of expansion slowing to7%in Novemberand tojust3%inDecember. One encouraging sign ofnormalityreturning to the market, however, is that seasonal patterns in demandappear to have been largely restored. International demand still a long way from recovery During2021, international passenger numbers fell to just7%of their pre-pandemic level. By the start of 2022,they were still down by around90%, although the year ahead was characterized by a steady recovery. This leftdemand43%below 2019 by December. Progress towardsrecovery was much slowerduring2023, despite demand more thandoublingyear-over-year(YoY). ByDecember2023, international air travel was still more than aquarterlower than in the same month in2019. And the pace of YoY growth slowed markedly during the year, slipping to30%by December. Preliminary numbers from ANA showYoY growth continuing at around30%at the start of2024. Recovery in airline capacity Airline capacity is below pre-pandemic levels in many markets Domestic airline capacity in February2024 wasjust1%lower in Japan than in the same monthin2019. International capacity was further fromrecovery at7%lower, although airline seatswere already some way above pre-pandemiclevels in three regions. South Asia has seen the biggest post-pandemic expansion in capacity, with airlinesoffering36%more seats. While there havebeen modest increases to India and Sri Lanka,growth has been dri