旅游市场报告-第二季度更新-BCD Travel

Produced by Research & Intelligence June 2024 Travel Market Report The Research & Intelligence team Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. We start this quarter’sTravel Market Reportwith a roundup of the latest globalairline industry outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).This includes a summary of what to expect in six regions. Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence American Airlines has recently adjusted its outlook for the second quarter of2024. We explore how its financial performance over the last 12 months hascompared to its rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. Sticking with airlines, more appear to be striking bilateral partnerships,including new or expanded codeshare arrangements. Guided by recentexamples, we try to understandwhat factors may be drivingthis. Turning to hotels, we use an index of average daily rates to understand howroomrates are trending around the world. Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager,Research & Intelligence Finally, as part of our program of regularly surveying both travelmanagers/buyers and business travelers, we’ve taken the opportunity to getboth groups’ views on travel policy. You canlearn aboutsomeof the keyfindings, before delving into the detailedreports, once they are bothpublished. MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Global airline industryoutlook Outlook for 2024 improves The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects airline industry revenue to reach $996 billion in 2024, up almost10%year-over-year (YoY) and reachingthe highest nominal value in itshistory. The primary driver of growth will be an increase in traffic, with global airline passenger revenues forecasted to increasebymore than 15% to $744 billion. Global air travel should finally fully recover in 2024, with passengers expected to number almost 5 billion. While up 10.4% YoYfrom 4.45 billion, the figure will also be 9% higher than in 2019.Traffic (revenue passenger kilometers-RPKs) should grow at a slightly higher pace of 11.6%, as people increasingly take longertrips.This will help support a 4.3% rise in average ticket prices(ATPs) globally, although this will be much lower than 2023’s 15%increase. Since its previous forecast (December 2023), IATA has raised by almost one-fifth both its global airline net profit estimate for2023 and its forecast for 2024. It’s also increased from 10.3% to11.3% the pace at which it expects profits to grow in 2024.Regional prospects for 2024 Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s airlines had accumulated almost $182 billion innet losses; they’re scheduledto deliver total profits of $58 billion for the 2023-2024 period. It’s clear they still have a long way to go to fully offsetthe damage done by the pandemic to their bottom lines. But airlines in some regions are making better progressthan others elsewhere. Africa–whiledemand for airtravelexists, it’s being held backby high costs, while geopoliticalissues will weigh on airline profits. Asia Pacific–2023’s slower thanhoped for rebound means airlinesmay enjoy a bigger boost togrowth in 2024 from the delayedrelease of pent-up demand forinternational travel. In 2024, airlines in Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America may only have generated sufficient profits to offset3-5%oftotal losses built up during the pandemic. European and Middle Eastern carriers are likely to have made muchmore progress, eating into 40-50% of their pandemic losses. Butit’s North American airlines that are leading thefinancial recovery. This year, IATA expects them to have built up enough profits tomore than covertotal pandemiclosses, putting them in a solid position going forward. Europe–travel demand willremain strong, but supply chainissues and the risk of labordisputes remain challenges toEuropean airline finances. Latin America–some airlines faceconsiderable financial difficulty,reflecting the region’s economicand social turmoil. Markets inCentral America will be key todriving growth. Middle East–significant trafficgrowth supported a strongfinancial performance among theregion’s airlines in 2023. Gulf huboperations located in aneconomically buoyant region offerencouraging prospects forairlinesin 2024. North America–solid consumerspending and robust air traveldemand are expected to continueunderpinning airline finances.Labor shortages may impactsmaller regional markets. U.S. airlineperformance American Airlines’ performance lags its rivals Weaker-than-expectedbookings promptedAmerican Airlines to lower itsoperating margin expectations for the second quarter of 2024 by one-percentage point to an8.5-10.5%range.This is a big reduction onlast year’ssecond quarter, when the airline posted a15.4%margin. In part, American’sCEO, Robert Isom, blamed the downgrade on some of the changes the airlinehad made over the last year to itssales and distribution strategy. He also cited aweaker-than-expecteddomestic pri