BCD旅游市场报告：2025年第二季度-BCD旅游

Produced by Research & Intelligence June 2025 Travel Market Report The Research & Intelligence team Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. This quarter’sTravel Market Reportbegins with a summary of the InternationalAir Transport Association’s (IATA) latest outlook for the airline industry in 2025and compares it to the predictions for this year that the organization made atthe end of 2024. Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence Sticking with airlines (and IATA), we present an update on the performance ofthe global airline industry so far this year. The airline theme continues with a review of airline start-ups and failures in2024, with a consideration of the factors behind such low numbers. Turning to our own primary research among travel buyers and managers, weoutline how they interact with data to improve their travel programs,summarizing the key points from a recently-published study. Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager,Research & Intelligence We’re also about to publish a new report detailing how travelers may expect topay for their daily needs when visiting Southeast Asia. We’ve included asummary of our main findings and recommendationsfor travelerswhenvisitingIndonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Global airline industryoutlook Outlook for 2025 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has updated its outlook for the global airline industry, which it last published inDecember 2024. In its June 2025 update, it has lowered its expectations for total airline industry revenue this year from $1trillion to$979billion.1Rather than the 4.4% growth previously forecasted, it now believes airline revenues will increase by just1.3%in 2025. Thisrepresents a marked slowdown from the6.3%growthestimated for 2024. Some regions’ airlines will post stronger revenue growth, with Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East likely to deliver increases of3-4%in 2025. Global revenue growth will be held back by the Americas. IATA expects revenue in Latin America to dip by1.3%, but itanticipates a3.4%decline in North America. IATA has also adjustedits profitability forecasts, but the changes appear more benign. While it has revised down from 16% to11%itsforecasts for net profit growth, this partly reflects base effects, with 2024’s profits proving to be higher than previouslyexpected. IATA hasonly lowered its profit numbers for 2025 from $36.6 billion to $36.0 billion. Inlight ofminimal revenue growth, profits are set to hold uprather well, underpinned by lower fuel prices and rising load factors. Regional prospects for 2025 Middle East–economic growth willsupport6.4%growth in airline traffic. Butdelivery delays of wide-bodied aircraftwill prevent the region’s airlines fromfully taking advantage. Net profitsshould increase slightly, rising by1.6%to $6.2 billion. Europe–low-cost carriers should drive6%traffic growth. A stronger euroshould lift profitability. At $11.3 bn,industry net profits should be higherthan 2024’s $9.6 bn, but lower than the$11.9 bn previously forecasted for 2025. Africa–despite high operational costs,sustained demand for air travel shouldsupport8%growth in traffic. But netprofits should beflatvs 2024. +37%Asia Pacific–following strong 17%growth in 2024, a9%traffic increase isprojected for 2025. Visa relaxations willfurther support growth. Net profitsshould rise by23%, much quicker thanthe 13% predicted previously +16%+16%Latin America–Brazil’s proposals forVAT on airline tickets will weigh onairline performance in the region’slargest market. IATA expects profits tobe15%lower. North America–the slowdown in U.S.economic growth will hit airlines. Whiledemand may be flat, net profits may stillrise by10%. But this is much lower thanthe earlier forecast of 17% growth. Update on global airline traffic North America weighs on global performance in 2025 Global airline traffic increased by8%year-over-year inApril, overturning the weak results seen in theprevious two months.2It also restored growth in air travel to the7-10%trend established over eight monthsup to January 2025. However, year-over-year comparisons would have been boosted by the later timing ofEaster, which shifted from March in 2024 to April this year. Regional perspective During the first four monthsof 2025, domestic air travelexpanded by only2.0%. Butthis masks some strongresults from major marketsincluding Brazil, India andJapan. International traffic was the main driver of industry growth in April, with its10.8%increase in demandoutpacing the3.3%rise in domestic travel. This surge in traffic led to an improvement in occupancy, withairline load factors rising by 1.7-points to84.1%. While Australia and Chinaposted lower growth, theglobal average wasdepressed by the1%declinein domestic air travelthe U.S. market. The weakness of the U.S.market is reflected in there