BCD旅游市场报告2025年第一季度-BCD旅游

Produced by Research & Intelligence March 2025 Travel Market Report Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. The Research & Intelligence team This quarter’sTravel Market Reportstarts with a roundup of the International AirTransport Association’s (IATA) outlook for the airline industry in 2025. Sticking with airlines (and IATA), we follow this with some insights about airlinesafety in 2024. Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence This is followed by an analysis of the financial and operational performance in2024 of the three largest U.S. network airlines. We conclude this quarter’s report with a summary of the initial findings from ourfirst ever primary research among business travelers about their experiences Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager, MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Global airline industryoutlook Outlook for 2025 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects total airline industry revenue to surpass$1 trillionfor the first time in 2025, although the4.4%year-over-year(YoY) rise will represent aslowdown from 2024’s estimated6.2%growth. Having remained strong in 2024, passenger traffic will continue to grow in 2025, albeit at a slower pace, as all regions record demand above pre-pandemic levels. This will support a4.0%rise inglobal airline passenger revenue to $705 billion. Having fallen by almost5%in 2024, it seems likely that the decline in average ticket prices will slow to less than3%in 2025. But with operating expenses set to rise at a slightly slower pace thantotal revenue, airlines may expect a small rise in both margin and profit. While struggling with rising labor costs, which are forecast to be8% higherin 2025, an anticipated5% decreasein fuelcosts will provide some relief to airline bottom lines. IATA currently expects YoY growth of16%in 2025 to deliver a third consecutive year of global net profits exceeding $30 billion. Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s airlines had accumulated almost $182 billion in net losses; they’re estimatedto have delivered combined profits of almost $67 billion for the 2023-2024 period. It’s clear they still have a longway to go to fully offset the damage done by the pandemic, but 2025’s predicted $37 billion net profit will be Regional prospects for 2025 Asia Pacific–slowing, but still-strong traffic growth andmarginally higher load factors Africa–high costs, a lowpropensity to travel andconstraints on expansion will limitprofit improvement among the Airlines in some regions are making better progress than others elsewhere. So far, only those in the Middle Eastand North America have accumulated sufficient profits to come close to offsetting past losses. IATA believes 2025should see both regions back in credit. Middle Eastern airlines should lead the way, withy profits accumulated overthe 2023-2025 period 45% than sustained pandemic losses. At this point, European airlines should have generated Latin America–the conclusion ofrestructuring programs at somemajor airlines and more favorableexchange rate movements should Europe–with 2024’s peak aircraftgroundings largely behind them,Europe’s low-cost carriers willexpand, driving the region’s North America–operatingmargins should see only a modestrise from 3.6% to 4.2%, as low-costcarriers compete more with full-service airlines for higher margin Middle East–as they pursuesome ambitious growth targets,expansion by both full-service andlow-cost carriers in 2025 shouldensure they fail to build on the Airlinesafetyin 2024 Only a slight retreat from 2023’s exceptional performance According to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), theglobal airline industry delivered another year of strong overall performance in respect of The all-accident rate of1.13incidents per million flights (one accident every 880,000 flights) was better than the five-year average of1.25, but it was slightly worse than 2023’s 1.09(one accident every 917,000 flights). Among the 40.6 million flights conducted in 2024, there weresevenfatal accidents,much higher than 2023’ssinglefatal event and above the five-year average offiveaccidents per year. The number of on-board fatalities jumped from72in 2023 to244last year. This was also69%above the five-year average of144. While the fatality riskdoubledyear-over-year, itremained incredibly low at0.06and below the five-year average of0.10. As Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General notes: “Even with recent high profile aviationaccidents, it is important to remember that accidents are extremely rare.” Between 2011 and 2015, there wason averageone accident every476,000flights. Thefigure for 2020-2024 was much-improved at one accident every810,000flights. In lessthan 10 years, the chances of being involved in any incident have fallen by70%. Key safety insights Year-over-year (YoY), accident rates in 2024 deteriorated in five of the eight regionscovere