报告：2025年全球风险预测-BCD Travel

Key risk trends according to Crisis24 March 2025 Produced by Research & IntelligenceMike Eggleton Introduction Global Risk Forecast 2025 Our BCD Marketplace partner Crisis24 recently published its “Global Risk Forecast 2025” report. Featuring insights from the Crisis24 Intelligence Team,the report highlights global security risks and includes a comprehensive analysis of the operational challenges and strategicrisks travel programs shouldanticipate in 2025. We’ve produced our own summary of this report, highlighting the key risk trends that Crisis24 covers in more detail. These trends relate to five broadaspects of risk to business travelers: aviation, cybersecurity, environment, health and maritime security. Use the following link to read thefull report, as well as a series of risk maps produced by Crisis24. More about Crisis24 The BCD Marketplace provides access to vetted, third-party technologies that solve unique needs and supports our clients' evolving travel programs.Crisis24 is one of our founding Marketplace partners, joining in 2014. As a leader in the travel risk management category, Crisis24 provides criticalexpertise and resources that help businesses navigate an increasingly complex global landscape. Our partnership powers best-in-class intelligence,security solutions and risk mitigation strategies. Aviation Protracted conflict will impact air travel Conflict zones mean airspace closures and increased risk to flights, and result in longer journey times and higher costs fortravelers Flight disruptions Interference Conflict zones in aviation Operational or security challenges have prompted someairlines to cancel services to the Middle East. In particular,they’re concerned about the risks of interference with theirnavigational equipment. These can be the unintentionalconsequences of military operations in a flight’s vicinity orcould be deliberate. Navigating around conflict zones increases congestion in thesurrounding airspace and strains air traffic control systems.The increased flight distances resulting from airlinesavoiding conflict zones increases their operating costs (andeventually airfares). To ensure they operate safely, airlines take care to avoidoperating over and near conflict zones. As well as Ukraine, the Middle East will also impact airlineoperations in 2025. In addition to flight diversions,passengers must deal with flight cancellations, longer flighttimes and increased (fuel) cost. Faced with extended flight times and challenges securingairport slots, some existing flight schedules may beunsustainable. Travelers will have fewer flights to choosefrom and may need to seek alternative routings. Any geographic spread of conflict will likely see commercialflights face more electronic interference. Longer term, regional connectivity will be impacted. Cybersecurity Cyber insecurity is increasing amid geopolitical, AI and quantum computing developments Need for robust cyber protection of criticalinfrastructure As AI becomes mainstream, new threats emerge More cybersecurity investment needed In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has become anintegral part of the digital economy. But this has raised newchallenges for cybersecurity. Sophisticated socialengineering, automated attacks, identity theft and thespreading of misinformation are among the ways AI hasbeen misused. Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East and competitionbetween the West and China for global influence have seencybersecurity become a victim of collateral damage.Technology is increasingly used to undermine criticalinfrastructure. While cyberattacks on vital services are notnew, they’re becoming more intense and widespread andincreasingly directly state-sponsored. Faced with an expanding array of cyber threats, companiesmust invest more in cybersecurity. As well as technology, thisshould include training and crisis management. Cloud security and third-party risks remain a priority. Expecta push for more regulation and government oversight toprotect data exposure. Businesses will face pressure to investmore in compliance programs and align cybersecurity withbest practices, standards and regulations. Criminals may also be accumulating vast amounts of stolenencrypted data now and planning to decrypt it at some pointin the future. They’re waiting for the vastly expandedanalytical power of quantum computing to becomeavailable, as the technology is expected to make the mostcomplex of today’s encryption standards obsolete. Steal thedata today, decrypt it later. During 2024, attempts were made to compromise the U.S.defense sector, utilities, internet providers, transportationand other critical systems. Proactive cybersecurity will be seen as the differencebetween good and bad business practices. The security of the global internet infrastructure remainsexposed, with undersea cables proving to be easy targets.Other critical infrastructure remains poorly protected. As itbecomes increasingly d