旅游市场报告-第一季度更新-BCD Travel

Produced by Research & Intelligence March 2024 Travel Market Report The Research & Intelligence team Welcome to the latest edition of the Travel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. As we’ve now entered a new year, this quarter’s Travel Market Report beginswith a summary of what two organizations believe are the macro, business andtravel trends to look out for in 2024. Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence We follow this with an update on the current state of global air travel and howit’s recovering. Sticking with the subject of air, we explore the latest round of airlineconsolidation, which will affect competition in Asia, Europe and the U.S. We regularly survey both travel managers/buyers and business travelers. In ourlatest survey, we asked travelers for their views on car rental. It’s the first timewe’ve examined this aspect of ground transportation. You can find out some ofthe key findings, before delving into the detailed report. Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager,Research & Intelligence Drawing on surveys we previously conducted about sustainable travel withboth travel buyers and business travelers, we’ve consolidated the findings intoa single report. We present some highlights, including a summary of theregional differences in travelers’ sustainable behaviors. MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Tenmacrotrendsto watch out for Background Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead” fromThe Economistmagazine, provided his views on the ten trends to watch out for in 2024. Geopolitics Politics Economics AI gets real Middle East turmoil Vote-a-rama Multiple elections will put globaldemocracy in the spotlight. But manyelections will be neither free nor fair. AI is rapidly developing, businesses areadopting it, and regulation should make itmore acceptable. But worries will persistabout an existential threat, job losses andelection meddling. The situation in Israel and Gaza hasdisrupted the Middle East. The conflictcould spread or may herald a new chancefor peace in the region. America’s global choice Multipolar disorder It’s presidential election year in the U.S. andthe outcome is too close to call. But theconsequences of the vote will be global,impacting issues ranging from climatepolicy to support for Ukraine. New energy geography Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East,and instability in Africa’s Sahel havedistracted the U.S. from its unipolar focuson countering China in Asia. The pursuit of clean energy has created newgreen superpowers, redrawing the energy-resources map. Copper, lithium and nickelare the new oil. A “greenlash” is possible, asclimate-friendly policies are seen targetingordinary people. Europe to step up A second cold war To ensure against the real risks ofweakened U.S. support, Europe must stepup and provide the military and economicbacking needed long-term by Ukraine. Andit should also lay out the (difficult) path forUkraine’s eventual EU membership. Cold war rhetoric has hardened,particularly between China and the U.S.The West will find it hard to disconnectfrom China. Competition to woo countriesin the Southern Hemisphere, for their greenresources, will intensify. Economic uncertainty With interest rates staying higher forlonger, Western economies may losemomentum in 2024, as companies andconsumers struggle. Banks face twinchallenges of exposure to governmentbonds and commercial property. The Economistcompletes the set with a tenth trend based on a pre-Christmas hope that the world puts ideological differencesaside in an Olympic year. Uniting the world? Tenbusiness trendsto watch out for Background Based on analysis from its sister publicationThe Economist Intelligence Unit,The Economistmagazine has shared a roundup of ten business trends to watch out for in 2024. Healthcare spending to expand Interest rates fall An ageing population will spend vigorously on health. With 10% ofpeople aged 65 or older, healthcare will account for 10% of globalGDP (gross domestic product). As inflation slowly eases, central banks around the world will start toreduce interest rates (for mid-2024). Infrastructure hole grows Defense industry does well The shortfall in infrastructure investment will grow to $3 trillion. Asiawill be the most active in trying to close the gap. The U.S. alone will spend $886 billion on defense, as it supportsUkraine and counters moves by China in Asia. A good year for advertising Renewable energy consumption climbs Big sporting (Paris Olympics) and political (U.S presidential election)events will push up global advertising revenue by 5%. As efforts to slow climate change grow, consumption of renewableenergy will climb by 11%. Fossils fuels will still account for more than80% of energy demand. Growth in EVs Record travel revenue International tourism will defy geopolitical and economic uncertainty,with high prices helping to lift revenue to a record $1.5 trillion. Strong gover